Fausta's Blog

American and Latin American Politics, Society, and Culture

November 23, 2015 By Fausta

Argentina: Macri wins

Mauricio Macri, age 56, the non-Kirchnerist candidate, won yesterday’s runoff election by 2 percentage points. Earlier in the evening he was winning by nearly eight points.

MacriScioli

The Telegraph has a profile.

Macri will be will be heading a nation where a monolithic Kirchnerism dominates the institutions, as it has for the past twelve years. That will be the challenge to any changes he may want to implement. CNBC’s headline, Argentina’s Macri ousts leftist Peronists from power, is entirely inaccurate. Speaking in his first news conference after winning the election,

Mr Macri said that “currency controls are a mistake, not providing information and statistics and not having an independent Central Bank are things we’re going to correct”.

Reactions vary from the very rosy to the somber. Here is a roundup:

Mary O’Grady looks at Argentina’s Political Earthquake. Mauricio Macri, the new president, pledges to end the conflict of the Kirchner years.

The big winner in this election is political pluralism. The Kirchners entered national politics in 2003, during a period of great economic hardship. Over time they tried to replicate the strategy used by the Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chávez to destroy institutional checks on presidential power and to install a one-party state. The election outcome means that the nation has managed to repel this authoritarian power-grab. But Mrs. Kirchner also hands Mr. Macri a fiscal and monetary mess in a period of global economic weakness and during a recession in Brazil, Argentina’s lead trading partner. He will have one shot at creating a comprehensive set of policies to inspire confidence, the sooner the better.

Jason Poblete believes Center-Right Argentina Win Could Impact Politically Beyond the Southern Cone

The socialists in Latin America are apoplectic as well as concerned. Macri, for example, is no fan of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro and he said as much during the campaign. While I doubt Macri will publicly chastise the left in the region, nor do I expect an immediate break, it will not be business as usual. Socialist regimes in Brazil, Cuba, Nicaragua, Ecuador, and a few other Western Hemisphere left-wing outpost will surely need to re-adjust their foreign policy toward Argentina. Maybe, just maybe, Macri and his policy advisors will slowly tear to shreds the ALBA, CELAC, and other cockamamie regional economic and political schemes that have set back several nations in the region.

I highly recommemd Gaurav Sharma’s analysis at Forbes, which must be read in full, but here are a couple of prargraphs,

Macri is likely to bring the charge de affairs back to the country’s ministry of foreign affairs. The conciliatory tone might even involve participating in the hitherto off-limits oil and gas exploration in Falkland Islands waters.

Away from the contentious side issue, it is the direction of Argentina’s shale exploration that is of much bigger significance in a global context. Earlier this year, the US Energy Information Administration noted that excluding the US and Canada, only Argentina and China happen to be producing either natural gas from shale formations or crude oil from tight formations (tight oil) at an international level.

How Argentina’s promising Neuquen Basin develops further would have a massive bearing on the economy. The Argentine Energy Institute says macroeconomic stability is essential for attracting foreign direct investment during the current oil and gas market downturn.

Macri has promised to bring about just that, even making a pledge to enact laws promoting investment and a more credible framework for the oil and gas sector. Restoring credibility, much of which has been lost under Kirchner, would be an entirely different matter.
. . .
The troubling situation requires radical action from Macri. More specifically, if Neuquen Basin’s oil and gas activity has to thrive, the new government needs to be bolder in making the giant Vaca Muerta shale play more viable.

HACER is hopeful, #Argentina Adiós Cristina: La esperanza retorna de la mano de la república.

Carlos Alberto Montaner is very optimistic: He sees the beginning of the end for populism in Argentina (in Spanish), and expects it will influence the upcoming Venezuelan election, and Brazil’s and Chile’s politics.

Eamonn MacDonagh, in a string of tweets last night, posted succinct and insightful analysis: He’s happy for Macri’s victory “for what it stops, the definitive end of the attempt to install a regime in Argentina and put an end to liberal democracy in Argentina.”

3.…end to liberal democracy in Argentina. Apart from Macri himself, the single person who deserves most credit for this.. #ArgentinaDecide

— Éamann Mac Donnchada (@EamonnMacDonagh) November 22, 2015

4.… is Massa. He was the one who put an end to the dream of changing the constitution to allow CFK to run for a 3rd term.

— Éamann Mac Donnchada (@EamonnMacDonagh) November 22, 2015

MacDonagh mentions,

8.In the presidential debate almost the only concrete commitment from Macri was to invoke the democracy clause of Mercosur…

— Éamann Mac Donnchada (@EamonnMacDonagh) November 22, 2015

9… and have Venezuela expelled from the bloc. He also committed himself to annulling the shameful pact with Iran…

— Éamann Mac Donnchada (@EamonnMacDonagh) November 22, 2015

10.… designed to cover up the AMIA massacre. Whatever Macri’s numerous defects, he is as normal as a very rich and ambitious person…

— Éamann Mac Donnchada (@EamonnMacDonagh) November 22, 2015

I am deeply skeptical of any measures that need carrying out through Mercosur/OAS/UN and the like.

As for the Nisman investigation, it currently stands as a suicide investigation, not a murder investigation.

Macri has his work cut out for him. Let’s wish him luck.

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Filed Under: Argentina, elections, politics Tagged With: Eamonn MacDonagh, Fausta's blog, Mauricio Macri, Vaca Muerta

November 16, 2015 By Fausta

The Paris massacre Carnival of Latin America and the Caribbean

The week’s top story everywhere: Pres. Obama declared Isis had been contained on the same day ISIS suicide bombers killed at least 41 people in Beirut, Lebanon. The following day, ISIS claimed responsibility for 128 deaths on a coordinated attack perpetrated on an unarmed citizenry in Paris.

A headline that was mostly ignored, but will have dire repercussions in our hemisphere. Abandoning Past Assurances, U.S. Accepts Iran’s Arming of Hezbollah.

ARGENTINA
Argentine Government Slams High Court for Ordering Disclosure of YPF-Chevron Deal for the development of the giant Vaca Muerta shale formation.

Kirchners Nearly Double Size of Argentinean State in 10 Years. Official Report Warns Current Government Spending Is Unsustainable

China, Argentina pledge continued cooperation regardless of election outcome

BOLIVIA
Bolivia Rules Out Uranium Production, Opts to Focus on Lithium Industry

BRAZIL
Brazil Court Orders Retirement of Judge in Eike Batista Trial. A Brazilian appeals court Thursday ordered the early retirement of the federal judge who had been presiding over the trial of Brazilian businessman Eike Batista.

Immigration to Brazil:No golden door. Forbidding policies take an economic toll

They do not come because Brazil needlessly puts up additional roadblocks. Its legislation on immigration is “anachronistic”, admits Beto Vasconcelos, who handles the issue at the justice ministry in Brasília. The main law dealing with immigration, enacted by generals who ruled from 1964 to 1985, treats foreigners as a menace to national security and to Brazilian workers. It bars non-Brazilians from taking part in political rallies, owning stakes in newspapers or participating actively in trade unions.

CHILE
Bachelet Inaugurates Construction of World’s Largest Telescope in Chile

COLOMBIA
The FARC are not disarming: Colombia’s rebels want peace, but fear giving up their guns

Colombia is Top Cocaine Producer Again, Still Supplying Mexican Cartels

CUBA
Did Secretaries Pritzker, Vilsack and Amb. Thorne Violate U.S. Sanctions Law?

Cuban exile musings: What does it take to qualify as a charming “despot” nowadays?

ECUADOR
Ecuador Forced to Fork Over US$1 Billion to US Oil Firm OXY. Correa Claims Reduced Penalty Is Both a Victory, Attack on Nation’s Sovereignty

EL SALVADOR
Murder rate increases sharply in El Salvador

During the first 10 months of 2015, El Salvador — a country with a population of 6.5 million — reported nearly 5,500 homicides, making it the murder capital of the world, according to Elizabeth Kennedy, a San Diego State University social scientist.

HONDURAS
Honduras Indians’ land being seized by drug gangs and settlers, UN official says. Special rapporteur on indigenous rights finds land invasions and deforestation. Miskitos and other groups demand government help in remote region

JAMAICA
Serial Killers Stalking Jamaica – Researcher, Police Agree That Repeat Offenders Behind Murder Numbers

MEXICO
Mexico’s Teachers Gird for Mandatory Performance Tests. This weekend the first of Mexico’s 1.4 million teachers will start taking performance tests, a core feature of President Enrique Peña Nieto’s education overhaul that has engendered some violent protests.

Mexican Cartels Remain Unrivaled in US Drug Market. Local Gangs Join Forces with Criminal Groups South of the Border, Warns DEA Report

NICARAGUA
Nicaragua OKs canal’s impact studies, clearing way for construction

PANAMA
Panama rushes to secure canal after Paris attacks

PARAGUAY
Structural Problems Perpetuate Widespread Corruption in Paraguay

PERU
AP PHOTOS: Peru’s coca destroyers perform grueling work

PUERTO RICO
Little-known hedgie plays hardball with Puerto Rico’s debt

Puerto Rico: Isle of Disenchantment

URUGUAY
Uruguayan gov’t cuts Syrian family aid for gasoline incident

During a meeting with government officials last month, Merhi Alshebli doused himself with gasoline. He did not light himself on fire. Alshebli and other Syrian refugees resettled in Uruguay last year have complained that the government hasn’t helped enough.

VENEZUELA
Venezuelan president criticises ‘imperialist ambushes’ after two relatives arrested by US for drug trafficking. Franqui Flores de Freitas and Efrain Campo Flores, family of Nicolas Maduro’s wife, appeared before a New York court on drug trafficking charges on Thursday and were remanded in custody

Arrested nephews of Venezuela’s first lady could face life in prison

Good luck with that: Push for Venezuela to allow observers. Lawmakers from the US and Latin America urge Venezuela to allow OAS observers to monitor upcoming legislative elections.



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Filed Under: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Carnival of Latin America, Carnival of Latin America and the Caribbean, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Jamaica, Latin America, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, Uruguay, Venezuela Tagged With: Chevron, Eike Batista, Fausta's blog, Hezbollah, Vaca Muerta

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