unemployment | Fausta's Blog

March 31, 2010 By Fausta

Losing jobs like there’s no tomorrow

Private Payrolls Dropped in March
Factory Orders Increased Last Month

Private-sector jobs in the U.S. dropped by 23,000 this month, according to a national employment report published Wednesday by payroll giant Automatic Data Processing Inc. and consultancy Macroeconomic Advisers.

The ADP survey tallies only private-sector jobs, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payroll data, to be released Friday, include government workers. The addition of workers for the 2010 census is expected to lift federal government payrolls.

It points to a jobless recovery:

Census workers, hired for temporary work, were “the healthiest sector of the job market,” and Reason has 3 Reasons Why Public Sector Employees Are Killing The Economy:

Meanwhile, Ed found out that the Washington Post is blaming workers for lagging employment – because private sector workers are more productive.

Give everybody a government job, and we won’t have to worry about productivity at all.

January 27, 2010 By Fausta

Those pesky “unexpected” numbers

Today’s headline: New home sales unexpectedly fall in December

Sales of newly built U.S. single-family homes fell unexpectedly in December, data showed on Wednesday, the latest indication that the government-led housing recovery might be losing some steam.

The Commerce Department said sales fell 7.6 percent to a 342,000 unit annual rate from an upwardly revised 370,000 units in November. It was the second straight month that new home sales declined.

Last week, jobless claims “unexpectedly” worsened: Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Rise on Backlog

More Americans than anticipated filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, reflecting a backlog of applications from the year-end holidays.

Initial jobless claims rose by 36,000 to 482,000 in the week ended Jan. 16, the highest level in two months, from 446,000 the prior week, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington.

Before that, foreclosures rose, also “unexpectedly“.

Considering we’re in a recession, and the Obama administration continues to castigate private business, it’s difficult to ascertain why the above three rose “unexpectedly“. It is to be expected.

January 8, 2010 By Fausta

Jobless numbers released, on time for a Friday afternoon post

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has the bad news: (h/t Ed)

Nonfarm payroll employment edged down (-85,000) in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 10.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment fell in construction, manufacturing, and wholesale trade, while temporary help services and health care added jobs.

In December, both the number of unemployed persons, at 15.3 million, and the unemployment rate, at 10.0 percent, were unchanged. At the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons was 7.7 million, and the unemployment rate was 5.0 percent. …

Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down in December (-85,000). Job losses continued in construction, manufacturing, and wholesale trade, while temporary help services and health care continued to add jobs. During 2009, monthly job losses moderated substantially. Employment losses in the first quarter of 2009 averaged 691,000 per month, compared with an average loss of 69,000 per month in the fourth quarter.

This is sharp drop on the workforce, 661,000 fewer people working.

James Pethokoukis lists
9 reasons why the Dec. jobs report is bad news for Dems

9 reasons why the Dec. jobs report is bad news for Dems
Jan 8, 2010 10:33 EST
2010 election | Obamanomics | unemployment

Talk about one last gasp from the horrible year that was 2009. On the political front, the December jobs numbers were terrible news for the White House and congressional Democrats in a midterm election year. Here’s how it plays out:

1. Remember this simple formula: Unemployment drives presidential approval numbers and presidential approval numbers drive midterm election results.

2. President Barack Obama’s approval numbers are hovering just a tick below 50 percent. Since 1962, the average House midterm loss for the president’s party when his approval is sub-50 percent is 41 seats. The GOP needs 40 to take the House.

3. And make no mistake, the December unemployment numbers were bad both economically and politically. The 85,000 job loss was worse than expected and will be played that way the media. The continuation of a double-digit unemployment also resonates with voters. And not a in a good way.

4. Then will come the second-take stories that will notice the shrinking labor force, which dropped by nearly 700,000 from November. Had it stayed stable for last month, the jobless rate would have been 10.4 percent. Had it stayed stable since August, the jobless rate would be 11 percent!

5. But wait, there’s more! The U-6 rate rate which combines the basic jobless rate, discouraged workers, part-timers-who-would-rather-be-full-tim ers climbed to 17.3 percent. And the average duration of unemployment rose to a record high 29.1 weeks.

Go read the other four reasons.

Power Line explains how the Obama economy is worsening the recession.

What’s to come? The upcoming healthcare legislation, cap and trade, and inflation are not going to make any of these numbers any better.

UPDATE
Not depressed enough yet?
Unemployment Exhaustion Rate = 53.78%, a New High

Update, Saturday 9 January
Doug Ross has a post you must read:
The Obama Recovery: more than 50% will pay no federal taxes in ’09 — a John Galt Tipping Point

November 12, 2009 By Fausta

Coming up: 12% unemployment

James Pethokoukis explains 12 reasons unemployment is going to (at least) 12 percent.

Read the whole list, but pay particular attention to items 6-9:

6. The number of permanent job losses this cycle (unemployed but not for temporary purposes) increased by a record 6.2 million. In fact, well over half of the total unemployment pool of 15.7 million was generated just in this past recession alone. A record 5.6 million people have been unemployed for at least six months (this number rarely gets above two million in a normal downturn) which is nearly a 36% share of the jobless ranks (again, this rarely gets above 20%). Both the median (18.7 weeks) and average (26.9 weeks) duration of unemployment have risen to all-time highs.

7. The longer it takes for these folks to find employment (and now they can go on the government benefit list for up to two years) the more difficult it is going to be to retrain them in the future when labour demand does begin to pick up.

8. Not only that, but we have a youth unemployment rate now approaching a record 20%. Again, this is going to prove to be very problematic for employers in the future who are going to be looking for skills and experience when the boomers finally do begin to retire.

9. The gap between the U6 and the official U3 rate is at a record 7.3 percentage points. Normally this spread is between 3-4 percentage points and ultimately we will see a reversion to the mean, to some unhappy middle where the U6 may be closer to 15.0-16.0% and the posted jobless rate closer to 12%. This will undoubtedly be a major political issue, especially in the context of a mid-term elections and the GOP starting to gain some electoral ground.

Those are depression-era numbers. Dale Franks points out that

if we currently reported the unemployment rate as they did in the 1930’s, our current rate of unemployment would be around 17.2%

Of course, these numbers don’t account for the effect a job-killer bill like Cap and Trade, or the costs of the healthcare bill would have on the economy.

How’s all that hope and change working for you now?

Link also at Instapundit