Fausta's Blog

American and Latin American Politics, Society, and Culture

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Venezuela: Did the Minister of Defense back out at the last minute?

I have documented every post on Latin America strenuously, but this post is an exception. I do not have contacts in the country or in any of the other places involved, so please read with caution.

In his Thursday, May 2, 2019 show, Jaime Bayly described that the Minister of Defense for the National Armed Forces of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, General Vladimir Padrino, had agreed to aid Juan Guaidó remove Nicolas Maduro from office.

Who is General Padrino?
In a post three years ago, I mentioned that Padrino, upon taking the job of commanding the country’s entire supply chain possibly “was given the job by Cuban intelligence to keep an eye on Maduro.” Additionally, Nicolás Maduro had declared “All the ministries, all the ministers, all the state institutions are at the service and in absolute subordination” to the head of the armed forces, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino – including,

a new military-industrial mining, oil and gas company that will rival the state-owned oil company PdVSA.

In other words, Padrino lives up to his name, which means Godfather. His agreement would be crucial for any change to take place.

I must point out that Wikipedia correctly states,

On 22 September 2017, Canada sanctioned Padrino due to rupture of Venezuela’s constitutional order following the 2017 Venezuelan Constituent Assembly election.[6][7] The United States government has also sanctioned Padrino on 25 September 2018 for his role in solidifying President Maduro’s power in Venezuela.[8] Vladimir Padrino López is also banned from entering Colombia.[9]

The Bayly YouTube, in Spanish

Bayly said that Padrino had agreed to having Maduro leave for Cuba and install Guaidó as interim president in exchange for being allowed to keep the fortune he’s amassed over the years and avoiding prosecution by the U.S. The U.S. would also give the new interim administration $20billion to pay Russia for its oil interests in the country.

This was scheduled to take place on May 1st.

But Padrino changed his mind,

ABC Spain reports that General Padrino backed out at the last moment, even when the negotiation had lasted for several months. Bayly claims that Padrino demanded at the last moment to be permanent president.

The right price?

On Sunday May 5th, the Moscow Times published an opinion piece, Putin Is Ready to Give Up Venezuela for the Right Price.
Sergei Lavrov and Mike Pompeo will soon meet in Helsinki to discuss Venezuela’s future.

On May 3, U.S. President Donald Trump called Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to flag American concerns over Russia’s “disruptive role” in Venezuela and stress his country’sdetermination to ensure Venezuela’s return to democratic rule.

The price may involve Ukraine,

For Moscow, a deal of equals on Venezuela where Russia helps the U.S. diffuse the crisis by engineering a constitutional transition, should involve an equally significant concession by the U.S. (on a par with JFK-Khrushchev deal to remove nuclear missiles from Cuba and Turkey) to pressure Kiev into fully implementing the Minsk-2 agreements that would truncate Ukraine’s sovereignty and allow Moscow to retain some degree of control over Kiev’s security policies.
…
Moscow is ready to sell its stake in Maduro, but it is still unclear whether Washington is ready to offer the right price.

Interesting times

If Russia is out of the picture, there’s still the question of China and Iran remaining in the country.

If Maduro leaves, how about Tarek El Aissami, Vice President indicted by the U.S. for drug charges?

Additionally, I doubt very much that Cuba would give up its control of Venezuela’s security services.

This coming week promises to be very interesting indeed.

UPDATE:
Linked by Ed Driscoll at Instapundit. Thank you!
Linked by Da Tech Guy. Thank you!

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How will the Iranian protests affect Latin America?

There are 21 reported deaths from the protests that started last Thursday in Iran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blamed Iran’s “enemies”

Other Iranian officials had blamed “foreign agents” and an online “proxy war” waged by the US, the UK and Saudi Arabia for the violence.

Khamenei’s remarks followed more deadly violence on Monday, in which nine people were killed, including seven protesters, a member of a pro-government militia and a policeman. Twelve others were killed over the weekend as the protests intensified.

For years Iran has targeted Latin America for recruitment,

Iranian intelligence and military efforts to recruit young men in Peru, train them in Iran, and return them to Peru. A Hezbollah movement has now been established in the country.
. . .
a former Iranian official with knowledge of the country’s terror network who claimed that “more than 40,000 of the regime’s security, intelligence and propaganda forces” have been successfully placed in the region. According to another source cited in the article, the Quds Force has established command and control centers in two Latin American countries.

Last November, Iran promised to send warships to the Gulf of Mexico

Iran will likely use the warships’ visit to South America to advance its relationship with Venezuela, a US adversary, the outlet reported.

Seven years ago I was posting on Iran-Venezuela ties.  Hezbollah and Iran have continued their expansion in our hemisphere (emphasis added)

Overall, Latin America, Central America, and the Caribbean offer Iran and Hezbollah fertile territory to build relations, bolster economic development and spread their ideology. Their efforts are made easier by governments such as Bolivia, Nicaragua, and Ecuador, whose hostility to U.S. interests manifest as non-cooperation on U.S. counterterror and defense partnerships. The Iranian regime also associates with the Bolivarian Alliance of the Countries of Our America (ALBA), a group created by Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez, which resists the United States through political and economic means.

What is perhaps the most worrisome tactic of Iran and Hezbollah is the use of seemingly innocuous acts of diplomacy to obscure drug smuggling and money laundering. According to the U.S. government, Iran has relied on Latin America to evade sanctions by signing economic and security agreements in order to create a network of diplomatic and economic relationships.

According to Infobae, Lebanon-based Hezbollah generates at least $10million/year from drugs and weapons trafficking, but Hezbollah’s total take may be much larger at  the Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay Tri-Border Area (TBA).

Venezuela – going back to the Aeroterror flights days – continues to be on top of Iran’s list, granting Iranian military firms large tracts of isolated land to develop missile technology.

Venezuela’s Vice President, Tareck El Aissami, has allegedly issued passports to members of Hamas and Hezbollah.

This means members of the two organizations, as well as drug lords from narco-terror groups such as FARC, not only coordinate and work together, but also are awarded state sponsorship from the highest levels of government

While this took place, the Obama administration allegedly covered up for Hezbollah in Latin America; They killed a probe of the terror group to get the Iran deal. According to Josh Meyer’s extensive report,

As a result, some Hezbollah operatives were not pursued via arrests, indictments, or Treasury designations that would have blocked their access to U.S. financial markets, according to Bauer, a career Treasury official, who served briefly in its Office of Terrorist Financing as a senior policy adviser for Iran before leaving in late 2015. And other “Hezbollah facilitators”arrested in France, Colombia, Lithuania have not been extradited — or indicted — in the U.S., she wrote.

Whether Iran and Hezbollah use the region to circumvent sanctions, traffic drugs, launder money or plan future attacks, there is a real and growing threat.

Will the protests in Iran have any effect on this? Only if there’s regime change.

But Iranian expansion in the Americas continues to be one of the ignored stories of the decade.
.

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Venezuela: From a post nine years ago

I posted this on June 16, 2008,

On the same week that Chavez was supposedly telling the FARC to lay down their arms, Venezuelan journalist Patricia Poleo reported that Venezuelans of Arab ancestry are being recruited under the auspices of Tarek el Ayssami, Venezuela’s vice-Minister of the Interior, for combat training in Hezbollah camps in South Lebanon. Here is my translation.

That was then, this is now:

Tareck Zaidan El Aissami Maddah (Spanish pronunciation: [taˈɾek ˈsaiðan ˈel aisˈsami ˈmaða]; Arabic: طارق زيدان العيسمي مداح‎‎,[3] born 12 November 1974)[4] is a Venezuelan politician who has been Vice President of Venezuela since January 2017.

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Venezuela: Capriles barred from public office for 15 years

which means he can’t be a candidate next year, either,

Venezuela’s Top Opposition Leader Barred From Holding Office.

This shouldn’t come as a much of a surprise, since,

President Nicolás Maduro and his mentor and predecessor Hugo Chávez have barred dozens of popular opposition politicians for minor or trumped-up offenses in the past decade to help hold on to power, say international rights groups and constitutional experts. Dozens more have been jailed without trial or are on the run.

El Aissami had to do with it,

The move against Mr. Capriles comes after Vice President Tareck El Aissami blasted him on Thursday for leading antigovernment protests that led to clashes between police and demonstrators earlier that day. Mr. El Aissami called the protesters terrorists and compared them to coup plotters who briefly overthrew Mr. Chávez 15 years ago.

Venezuela Socialists’ election strategy? Block adversaries

A nearly identical maneuver was used ten years ago to halt the rise of former mayor Leopoldo Lopez, who in polls remains one of the most influential opposition leaders despite being jailed three years ago for his role in anti-government protests.

López is still in jail.

Street protests continue, but

No TV stations in the country carried the vast protests, with Globovision — the 24 hour news station — showing Argentina Falkland/Malvinas Islands history.

Capriles was tear-gassed today

Take 20 seconds to watch the video in this tweet. It shows a calm, colected Henrique Capriles walking down the street when suddenly, for no apparent reason, a tear gas canister is shot straight at his group.

That’s the dynamic at work in this week’s protests in Caracas. It really is perverse.

Brazil and the head of the Organization of American States (OAS) called on Monday for elections to restore full democracy in Venezuela.

Food crisis, violence prompt spike in Venezuelan asylum seekers in Canada. The number of asylum claims from Venezuela more than doubled last year from the year before as people struggle to find food and medicine in a tanking economy.

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Venezuela gets worse

Johns Hopkins Prof. Steve Hanke tweets,

Venezuela: It’s Only Getting Worse – Oil Markets Daily

Summary

  • Venezuela’s oil production, according to secondary sources, stands at 1.987 million b/d.
  • With inflation rising and economic turmoil continuing, we expect Venezuela’s oil production to decline another 300k b/d this year.
  • Lower oil prices will continue to hamper high cost oil production globally, and our obsession over how much high cost production will decline is our main bullish long oil thesis.


Venezuelan Supreme Court Annuls Act of Congress, Parliamentary Immunity (emphasis added)

With the application of this ruling, the Supreme Court may annul any action of the National Assembly that violates Article 200 of the Constitution, which indicates that the deputies of the National Parliament “shall enjoy immunity in the exercise of their functions.”

Also, the ruling in question could lead to the prosecution of deputies for “treason to the mother country” in military courts, analysts report.

Over at the OAS,
Venezuela in showdown with OAS, U.S. over political prisoners

As expected, Venezuela pushes back against OAS suspension warnings. The Washington-based Organization of American States (OAS) has called for Venezuela to be suspended from the group unless it holds fresh elections. Ahead of a special OAS meeting, Caracas called the proposed move illegal

In this speech (5:30 into the podcast, in Spanish), OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro stated that the United States Treasury Department has frozen nearly US $3 billion of Venezuela Vice-President Tareck El Aissami’s assets, “an amount equivalent to half the cost of the country’s 2012 food imports.”

Post corrected for HTML error.



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Venezuela: CNN en Español off the air UPDATED

for daring to report on the passports-for-terrorists scheme,

Venezuela Takes CNN En Español Off the Air. Cable channel faces disciplinary proceedings from government after report on alleged sale of fake passports

The channel disappeared from all national cable providers minutes after the media regulator said it launched disciplinary proceedings against CNN en Español for “direct aggression against the peace and democratic stability of Venezuelan people.”

For many Venezuelans, CNN en Español had become the last independent source of news about their country, as the government steadily bought out, shut down or starved local media of resources.
. . .
Earlier this week, it was the only Spanish-language TV station in Venezuela to report on the U.S. sanctions against the country’s powerful vice president, Tareck El Aissami, for alleged drug trafficking. CNN En Español also implicated Mr. El Aissami last week in the fraudulent sale of passports to Middle Eastern citizens with links to terrorism.

ABC’s Nightline did a report, Venezuela: Descent Into Chaos (you can watch here) that I highly recommend, on the hunger situation. The reporter was held for 3 days.

Democratic socialism at work.

UPDATE
JC sent part 2 of the video,

[Post edited for missing HTML]

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Venezuela: US sanctions VP El Aissami over drug ties

U.S. Puts Venezuelan Vice President Tareck El Aissami on Sanctions List. Official, placed on Treasury’s kingpins list, allegedly aided drug traffickers (emphasis added)

Executive Vice President Tareck El Aissami and Venezuelan financier Samark Lopez were placed on the Office of Foreign Assets Control blacklist, the Treasury Department said in a statement Monday. The list freezes their assets in the U.S. and blocks U.S. companies and individuals from doing business with them.

Mr. El Aissami “facilitated shipments of narcotics from Venezuela,” while serving as Venezuela’s Interior Minister and then governor of the central Aragua state, said the statement. “He oversaw or partially owned narcotics shipments of over 1,000 kilograms from Venezuela on multiple occasions.”

For the Zetas, among others,

The Treasury department on Monday said Mr. El Aissami, as Interior Minister, was paid for using his control of Venezuelan air bases, ports and highways to facilitate drug shipments from Venezuela and Colombian druglords as well as Mexico’s Los Zetas drug cartel.

Alek Boyd has been reporting on El Aissami for years,

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CNN finally reports on Venezuela’s passports-for-terrorists scheme

I posted in 2015: Venezuela issuing passports, voter registrations, to Hezbollah & Syrians

In 2013: Hezbollah agent issued Venezuelan diplomatic passport.

I can spend all day linking to my prior posts on this topic.

Finally, after all these years, CNN investigates: Venezuela may have given passports to people with ties to terrorism

One confidential intelligence document obtained by CNN links Venezuela’s new Vice President Tareck El Aissami to 173 Venezuelan passports and ID’s that were issued to individuals from the Middle East, including people connected to the terrorist group Hezbollah.

Yes, I posted about El Aissami’s role in 2013.

But back to CNN

The accusation that the country was issuing passports to people who are not Venezuelan first surfaced in the early 2000s when Hugo Chavez was the country’s president, interviews and records show.
A Venezuelan passport permits entry into more than 130 countries without a visa, including 26 countries in the European Union, according to a ranking by Henley and Partners. A visa is required to enter the United States.

Glad to see CNN is finally starting to pay attention.

UPDATE
Linked to by Pirate’s Cove. Thank you!

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