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Venezuela: 200,000 signatures needed, 1.1 million collected

As I posted earlier, Venezuela’s opposition was trying to collect 200,000 signatures needed for a petition to recall dictator Nicolás Maduro.

Huge crowds turned up. Somebody even photoshopped Hugo Chávez up from the grave,

ChavezFirma

The numbers are astonishing,
Venezuelan Opposition Effort to Recall Maduro Advances. Petition to begin recall draws 1.1 million signatures, but the monthslong effort substantial challenges

The opposition’s recall petition is the first in a three-stage process that would last at least eight months and would need to surmount possible procedural obstacles from the Supreme Court and the electoral court, both staffed with Maduro loyalists, according to constitutional and political experts.Opposition leader Henrique Capriles, who is spearheading the referendum drive, said the opposition collected 1.1 million signatures on the first day, well above the threshold of 198,000.

But,

The signatures will be submitted to the National Electoral Council, known as CNE, which will then have 20 days to authenticate them and the accompanying fingerprints. If it does, the opposition must then collect nearly four million signatures in three days to trigger the actual recall vote.

To recall Mr. Maduro and force new elections, they would have to garner more votes than the 7.5 million the president got in the 2013 ballot.

I am extremely pessimistic that it would have any effect:

  1. For starters, “this is just the first step in a ridiculously slow, needlessly tortuous, laughably unfair process.”
  2. As the WSJ points out, “the government controls everything from the delivery of signature forms to the authentication process.”
  3. Maduro’s term ends next year. Why should the government hurry?
  4. Cuba is getting new funds from the US, and is in no hurry to pressure Venezuela to improve.
  5. The other actors in the region (drug cartels, FARC, Iran) have no incentive to precipitate a risky change.
  6. The purpose of the regime is to consolidate power around itself, not to act in the benefit of the country.

Let’s hope I’m wrong.

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Venezuela: Let’s not get too carried away with the celebrations

It is now official:

Venezuelan electoral authorities have confirmed that the opposition has won a key two-thirds majority, enabling it to challenge President Nicolas Maduro.

Democratic Unity coalition won the necessary 112 of 167 congressional seats to gain a two-thirds supermajority.

There are positive reactions, Venezuela Awakens From Its 17-Year Socialist Nightmare, which it has. John Hinderaker said, HASTA LA VISTA, SOCIALISM!

As you may know, I am delighted that the opposition won decisively and overwhelmingly over the chavista‘s PSUV. I just can’t join Hinderaker in bidding socialism good-bye yet.

For instance, there’s the talk,

You talk in order to maintain the illusion a conversation is still possible. The voters in Venezuela, after 17 years of voting Chavismo into power, believe they can vote Maduro out of office. The opposition may now have 113 seats in a 167-member assembly, a two thirds majority.  Maduro gone, right?  Well not necessarily. As the Chavista president reminded the voters: voting out socialism is no ordinary matter. Whatever you do, you can’t stop the revolution.

Maduro’s arguments are another way of asserting what we hear from time to time. When the “gains” of  a messianic system become too great to reverse, they become too important to ever be given back. Other projects of equal weight, like the formation of the European Union, are of such importance that they adhere to the principle of “vote until you get it right.” For example,Ireland and Denmark were put through two referendums until they accepted the desired result. In the things that really matter, the moral arc of history — not uninformed public opinion — gets the last word.

The tweet,
“Here we are, the children of Bolívar and Chávez, [standing] Firm!!! #WithOurMoraleIntact”
The poster reads [my translation],


“No crying in defeat”

It was precisely that aspect of Lenin’s activity which allowed him to build an army of soldiers committed to the end to our cause, and confident in its strength.
Josef Stalin’s speech to Kremlin army cadets

[Note: I could not verify that the quote is authentic, but the message is clear.]

The chavistas are not happily riding into the sunset, there are plenty of foreign actors involved in Venezuela (Cuba, the FARC, Iran and its proxy Hezbollah), the opposition is not a uniform lot, and the people are impatient for results.

A lot can happen between now and the new National Assembly’s January 5th inauguration.

Bonus, in Spanish,
Emili Basco: El chavismo quiso romper el proceso electoral y posponerlo. Una operación opositora colocó inhibidores de señal en 1.600 centros; eso bloqueó las comunicaciones de los activistas del PSUV para el fraude



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Venezuela: Opposition wins by a landslide

The headline:
Venezuelan Opposition Wins Midterm Congressional Elections. Venezuela’s opposition, riding a wave of voter anger amid a deep economic crisis, swept to a big victory in midterm elections, delivering a major blow to the ruling Socialist party and President Nicolás Maduro.

If the opposition wins at least some of the remaining 22 races, they would get close to a supermajority, which would give them greater powers.
. . .
Three-fifths of congress—101 or more deputies—would permit the passage of powerful laws that could lead to a host of deep overhauls.

The elections board did not announce results until 12:30AM today, but by 11:00PM Caracas time last night, the PSUV already had workers dismantling the bandstand for the scheduled victory concert at Bolívar Square,

With 75% total turnout, the opposition majority was overwhelming enough that no amount of fraud, mismanagement, and intimidation could overcome it. That said, I’m absolutely thrilled that my forecast was wrong.

El Pais and Caracas Chronicles live-blogged.

BBC:

Venezuela: What will change after the opposition win?

President Maduro’s term runs until April 2019.However, once he is halfway into his term, from April 2016 onwards, a recall referendum could be held.

Drudge:
Venezuela opposition thrashes ‘Chavismo’ to win legislature…

Socialists on the run!

CNN: Venezuela’s opposition party wins parliament in a blow to Maduro

At the blogs:
First Report By Venezuelan Electoral Board Gives Opposition 99 Deputies

A vote for the times

Venezuelan Opposition Takes Congress Back from Chavismo. 99 of 167 Seats Secured, Two-Thirds Majority Still Up for Grabs

#Venezuela #6D #TriunfalaLibertad Régimen anuncia que perdió: 99 diputados de oposición

José Benegas looks at the ideology behind chavismo (in Spanish).

Some of the long-term challenges ahead:
PDVSA corruption, mismanagement, declining production.
The oil giveaways to Cuba.
Cuba’s control of the Venezuelan security apparatus.
The cartel de los soles.
Iran-Venezuela ties (including the official passports issued to members of Iran-sponsored Hezbollah).
The colectivos.
The ruinous economic situation.
And these are just the ones that first come to mind.

The immediate challenge:
The new members to the National Assembly do not take office until January 5th. Diosdado Cabello and his goons can cause a lot of harm and mayhem in one month.

The takeaway: What takes place in Venezuela in the next month, and in the first six months of 2016 will be crucially important for our entire hemisphere.

UPDATE:
Linked to by GOP News. Thank you!

Linked to by Hot Air. Thank you!

Linked to by Rage and War. Thank you!

Linked to by American Thinker. Thank you!

Linked to by The Diplomad. Thank you!

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