Fausta's Blog

American and Latin American Politics, Society, and Culture

January 20, 2010 By Fausta

Brown wins: Let me rain on your parade, Republicans

He Did It

I was at tango when the results came in: Scott Brown won the Senate seat formerly occupied by Ted Kennedy, the day before the 1-year anniversary of Obama’s inauguration,
Democrats seek back footing after epic Mass. loss

Republicans are rejoicing and Democrats reeling in the wake of Scott Brown’s stunning victory over Martha Coakley in a special Massachusetts Senate election that Brown insists was not simply a referendum on President Barack Obama.

Still, Obama grimly faced a need to both regroup and recoup losses on Wednesday, the anniversary of his inauguration, in a White House shaken by the realization of what a difference a year made. The most likely starting place was finding a way to save the much-criticized health care overhaul he’s been trying to push through Congress.
…
Brown will become the 41st Republican in the 100-member Senate, which could allow the GOP to block the health care bill. Democrats needed Coakley to win for a 60th vote to thwart Republican filibusters.

Brown became the first Republican elected to the U.S. Senate from supposedly true-blue Democratic Massachusetts since 1972.

Democrats are upset, and the liberal reaction is what one expects.

Clearly the Brown victory shakes up the balance of power in Washington since

The Brown victory forces the White House and congressional leaders to decide how—or whether—to salvage their long-sought health-care overhaul. Rushing the bill after losing Massachusetts carries political risks. So does letting it collapse.

Anticipating rough sledding for the bill, the S&P health-care sector stock index surged by more than 2% Tuesday, leading all other industry sectors, with managed-care stocks posting strong gains.

But another important factor is Brown’s stance on national security: Marc Thiessen, in an email this morning notes,

Most of the focus on the Massachusetts Senate race has been on health care.

But according to Senator-elect Brown’s chief strategist, terrorist interrogation was the issue that put his candidate over the top.

“People talk about the potency of the health-care issue,” Brown’s top strategist, Eric Fehrnstrom, told National Review’s Robert Costa, “but from our own internal polling, the more potent issue here in Massachusetts was terrorism and the treatment of enemy combatants.”

The Republicans should celebrate Brown’s victory, yes. It shows that

Any candidate that condescends, takes for granted, turns a deaf ear and ignores the will of the people will go down like Martha Coakley. Every seat will be contested if the constituents are discontented.

But the Republicans would be wise to apply that lesson to their own candidates, and listen to Rick Moran,

On the one hand, there is the danger that if the GOP were actually to cooperate with Democrats on issues of mutual concern, they wouldn’t get any credit for their efforts from the voters. On the other hand, there is the real danger that the charge of “obstructionism” by Democrats may carry a little more weight given the circumstances of Brown’s victory.

Threading the needle on expectations is going to be an interesting problem for the Republican leadership, one made more complex by the activism of the tea party movement. Paralysis may be the only viable option when so many are so angry at so much of the inside-the-beltway elite. “Responsible” governance might require that the GOP work with the Democrats to at least bring the economy out of its horrible doldrums. But anything proposed beyond tax cuts would probably be met by fierce resistance from those who see any government spending to stimulate the economy as worse than useless and an actual betrayal of conservative principles.

Such might be the case, but the question of whether the bulk of the American people will stand still for gridlock with the economy in the shape it is in today needs to be answered. The Republicans may want to think long and hard about that in the run-up to the 2010 midterms, when voters may decide that those who obstructed measures that might have lifted the economy out of its malaise without offering any realistic alternative of their own should not be rewarded with the keys to power.

The Republicans have their work cut out for them.

And yes, thank you and congratulations, Scott Brown.

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Filed Under: Barack Obama, Democrats, elections, Republicans Tagged With: Fausta's blog, Martha Coakley, Massachusetts, Scott Brown

January 19, 2010 By Fausta

Brown vs Coakley showdown

538 Model Posits Brown as 3:1 Favorite: The forecasting model that predicted all 35 Senate races in 2008 predicts Brown will win, and not only that,

Coakley’s odds are substantially worse than they appeared to be 24 hours ago, when there were fewer credible polls to evaluate and there appeared to be some chance that her numbers were bottoming out and perhaps reversing. However, the ARG and Research 2000 polls both show clear and recent trends against her. Indeed the model, which was optimized for regular rather than special elections, may be too slow to incorporate new information and may understate the magnitude of the trend toward Brown.

Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion will be liveblogging starting at 8:30AM today.

Will this mean the end of healthcare reform?

The bigger hurdle for Democrats, however, will be the anxiety and political upheaval caused by the election. If Brown wins, it will be in large part because of high turnout from independents who oppose the health care reform bill. That’s going to make going forward with reform, already a big gamble, even riskier.

Or will the Dems resort to a big gambit, and rush the bill through before Brown is seated, if he wins?

We live in interesting times, alright.

In a lighter mode, Obama: Coakley Victorious if Brown Gets Less Than 60%

Update
In Louisiana, the race is seen as important for the nation,

Kermit Hoffpauir, also of Baton Rouge, said he decided to make calls to help clients in his chemical process equipment business.

“The party in power’s an economy killer,” he said.

————————————————

Please note there will be no podcast this morning due to a change in a business appointment.

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Filed Under: Barack Obama, Democrats, elections, health care, healthcare, politics, Republicans Tagged With: Fausta's blog, Martha Coakley, Massachusetts, Scott Brown

January 16, 2010 By Fausta

VIDEO Coakley vs Brown: Baseball wars!

Elevating the political discourse even further,

Coakley dismisses Schilling: ‘Another Yankee fan’

In the intensifying Democratic precriminations game over who to blame if Coakley loses, here’s one for the blame Coakley camp: On another talk radio show, “Nightside With Dan Rea,” Coakley jabs Rudy Giuliani as a Yankee fan, then goes on to describe Brown supporter Curt Schilling, the great former Red Sox pitcher, as a Yankee fan as well.

Not lagging behind, The Nose on Your Face has come up with a follow-up video, New Coakley Ad: Scott Brown Is A Yankee Fan,

Jules Crittenden finds the election impossible to call.

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Filed Under: campaigns, Democrats, elections, politics, Republicans Tagged With: Fausta's blog, Martha Coakley, Massachusetts, Scott Brown

January 15, 2010 By Fausta

Obama panics: Will campaign for Coakley in Mass.

Obama to Campaign for Coakley in Massachusetts

President Barack Obama will travel to Massachusetts to campaign for embattled Democratic Senate candidate Martha Coakley before Tuesday’s special election, the White House confirmed today.

“I think the president believes he will be helpful and is happy to accept the invitation,” spokesman Robert Gibbs told reporters.

Former President Bill Clinton is campaigning for Coakley today in Massachusetts. The race has become intensely competitive as GOP state Sen. Scott Brown has surged in the polls.

The trip represents an unprecedented role for Obama in a special election.

In other signs of panic, World Trade Center Used in DSCC Scott Brown Attack Ad, arguably Worst Stock Photo Choice Ever

In the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee ad linked below, the stock photo that they use behind Scott Brown when they discuss “Wall Street greed” . . . the photo is of the World Trade Center.

Here’s the ad,

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Filed Under: Barack Obama, Democrats, elections, politics, Republicans Tagged With: Fausta's blog, Martha Coakley, Massachusetts, Scott Brown, World Trade Center

January 13, 2010 By Fausta

Coakley witnesses assault on John McCormack

Monday night John McCormack of the Weekly Standard – who is a legitimate credentialed journalist, by the way – was thrown on to the sidewalk by someone from the Coakley campaign during a fundraiser with lobbyists in Washington, DC. Here’s the video:

That’s bad enough, but here’s a photo of state Attorney General Martha Coakley witnessing the assault and doing nothing:

Coakley assault at fundraiser meehan-mccormack

John asks, Assailant Was a Coakley Staffer on Loan from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee?
Or just a really good lookalike?

William Jacobson says this photo may change the election, while Ed points to the irony,

Irony alert: it might be the man sent by the DSCC to help with “messaging.” I guess he’s on the job, huh?

It’s a message, alright.

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Filed Under: Democrats Tagged With: Martha Coakley, Massachusetts

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