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American and Latin American Politics, Society, and Culture

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Venezuela: Did the Minister of Defense back out at the last minute?

I have documented every post on Latin America strenuously, but this post is an exception. I do not have contacts in the country or in any of the other places involved, so please read with caution.

In his Thursday, May 2, 2019 show, Jaime Bayly described that the Minister of Defense for the National Armed Forces of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, General Vladimir Padrino, had agreed to aid Juan Guaidó remove Nicolas Maduro from office.

Who is General Padrino?
In a post three years ago, I mentioned that Padrino, upon taking the job of commanding the country’s entire supply chain possibly “was given the job by Cuban intelligence to keep an eye on Maduro.” Additionally, Nicolás Maduro had declared “All the ministries, all the ministers, all the state institutions are at the service and in absolute subordination” to the head of the armed forces, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino – including,

a new military-industrial mining, oil and gas company that will rival the state-owned oil company PdVSA.

In other words, Padrino lives up to his name, which means Godfather. His agreement would be crucial for any change to take place.

I must point out that Wikipedia correctly states,

On 22 September 2017, Canada sanctioned Padrino due to rupture of Venezuela’s constitutional order following the 2017 Venezuelan Constituent Assembly election.[6][7] The United States government has also sanctioned Padrino on 25 September 2018 for his role in solidifying President Maduro’s power in Venezuela.[8] Vladimir Padrino López is also banned from entering Colombia.[9]

The Bayly YouTube, in Spanish

Bayly said that Padrino had agreed to having Maduro leave for Cuba and install Guaidó as interim president in exchange for being allowed to keep the fortune he’s amassed over the years and avoiding prosecution by the U.S. The U.S. would also give the new interim administration $20billion to pay Russia for its oil interests in the country.

This was scheduled to take place on May 1st.

But Padrino changed his mind,

ABC Spain reports that General Padrino backed out at the last moment, even when the negotiation had lasted for several months. Bayly claims that Padrino demanded at the last moment to be permanent president.

The right price?

On Sunday May 5th, the Moscow Times published an opinion piece, Putin Is Ready to Give Up Venezuela for the Right Price.
Sergei Lavrov and Mike Pompeo will soon meet in Helsinki to discuss Venezuela’s future.

On May 3, U.S. President Donald Trump called Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to flag American concerns over Russia’s “disruptive role” in Venezuela and stress his country’sdetermination to ensure Venezuela’s return to democratic rule.

The price may involve Ukraine,

For Moscow, a deal of equals on Venezuela where Russia helps the U.S. diffuse the crisis by engineering a constitutional transition, should involve an equally significant concession by the U.S. (on a par with JFK-Khrushchev deal to remove nuclear missiles from Cuba and Turkey) to pressure Kiev into fully implementing the Minsk-2 agreements that would truncate Ukraine’s sovereignty and allow Moscow to retain some degree of control over Kiev’s security policies.
…
Moscow is ready to sell its stake in Maduro, but it is still unclear whether Washington is ready to offer the right price.

Interesting times

If Russia is out of the picture, there’s still the question of China and Iran remaining in the country.

If Maduro leaves, how about Tarek El Aissami, Vice President indicted by the U.S. for drug charges?

Additionally, I doubt very much that Cuba would give up its control of Venezuela’s security services.

This coming week promises to be very interesting indeed.

UPDATE:
Linked by Ed Driscoll at Instapundit. Thank you!
Linked by Da Tech Guy. Thank you!

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Venezuela: US bans the petro

The new cryptocurrency cannot be legally traded in the USA:

U.S. Bans Use of Venezuela’s Cryptocurrency. Official blasts so-called petro as ‘a desperate attempt by a corrupt regime to defraud international investors’.

With the economy in shambles and the country cut off from debt markets, Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro launched the so-called petro cryptocurrency last month in a bid to skirt intensifying financial sanctions from the U.S., the European Union and others aiming to punish the government for its authoritarian rule.

“Investing in the petro should be seen as investing in the dictatorship,” a senior U.S. official said after President Donald Trump signed an executive order banning the currency.

Indeed, (emphasis added)

U.S. officials say any other cryptocurrencies created by Venezuela’s government in the future will also be subject to the ban, which took effect immediately. Echoing the U.S. action, Venezuelan lawmakers opposed to Mr. Maduro say the petro is illegal because it was created without parliamentary approval, raising questions about the asset’s validity if there were a change of power.

The petro is the regime’s cheap excuse for a make-believe revenue source in exchange for nothing. If they were simply oriented towards creating a money laundering tool, there’s plenty of bitcoin action in that direction.

In other Venezuela news,
Tuberculosis is on the upswing

A city issues its currency: Venezuelan City Launches Its Own Currency Amid Cash Crunch

Even the Russians are starting to worry: Rosneft seeks to ease fears over Venezuela loans.
Russian oil producer says repayments are being made on schedule

Last, but not least,

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Venezuela: The refugee crisis as the regime’s expansionist weapon

A second post today on Venezuela:

I have been writing about Venezuela‘s man-made crisis for years.

Here’s a question: Qui bono?

Who stands to benefit from it?

The regime stands to benefit:

chaos, desperation and violence give it an excuse to crack down harder. A refugee crisis, sparked by hardship, makes it easier for regime agents to infiltrate neighboring countries, expanding the government’s clandestine networks.

Keep that in mind as the regime enters phase two of its plan for a Pan-American revolution.

Cross-posted at WoW! Magazine.

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Venezuela opens backchannel over jailed American Joshua Holt

AP reports,
US aides: Venezuela opens backchannel over jailed American

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro welcomed a visit by a top-ranking Republican congressional staffer last month to discuss the possible release of a Utah man jailed for more than 20 months in this volatile South American nation, six U.S. congressional and administration aides told The Associated Press.
. . .
Holt, 25, traveled to Caracas in June 2016 to marry a fellow Mormon he met online practicing his Spanish. The couple was waiting for her U.S. visa when they were arrested during a police raid on the government-built housing complex where they were living in her apartment. Venezuelan authorities alleged Holt was stockpiling “weapons of war.”

Holt states that the weapons were planted.

He has been in jail since 2016 as a political prisoner: video from John Sexton’s article,

In addition to the weapons charges, Holt is also being held on suspicion of being an American spy.

H/t Panampost.

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Venezuela: Inflation and woes

Venezuela announces 99.6 percent devaluation of official forex rate

The central bank said the first auction of its new DICOM system yielded an exchange rate of 30,987.5 bolivars per euro, equivalent to around 25,000 per dollar.

That is a devaluation of 86.6 percent with respect to the previous DICOM rate and 99.6 percent from the subsidized rate of 10 bolivars per dollar, which was eliminated last week. (goo.gl/TRuF2Z)

How Fast Are Prices Skyrocketing in Venezuela? See Exhibit A: the Egg. With hyperinflation at 13,000%, eggs become essential to bartering (emphasis added)

Such is the ordeal in a country stricken with hyperinflation and a government so flummoxed on how to fix the distortions of its crumbling economy that it’s resorting to introducing what it says is a bitcoin-like cryptocurrency. The “petro” would eclipse the near worthless “strong bolivar,” which has lost 98% of its value against the dollar in the past year.

The problem is that in a country as broke as Venezuela, the government can’t print enough bills or pay the hefty fees for commercial printers to supply them. Paying with plastic? Credit-card readers seldom work.

Additionally, Venezuela Ranked Last in the Rule of Law Index 2017-2018.

And, another one from Steve Hanke,

Across the border,

Colombia Opens Border Shelter for Venezuelans Fleeing Crisis.Government opens facility near border city of Cúcuta as some 35,000 Venezuelans cross into the country each day

The facility, opened Saturday near the border city of Cúcuta, is expected to provide shelter of up to 48 hours for 120 people a day. Pregnant mothers, the elderly and minors who entered the country legally will be given priority. It will be administered by the Red Cross.

And they come to stay: Once-rich Venezuelans live as beggars in Colombia, but they don’t want to go back. “Bogotá officials believe that as many as 600,000 Venezuelans are now living in Colombia.”

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Venezuela: The eight armies behind Maduro

With a vested interest for the status quo,

According to Otero, there are eight armed groups that make up the Maduro administration’s muscle:

  • Armed civilian militias that are uniformed and trained by the army
  • The Bolivarian National Guard (Guardia Nacional Boliviariana — GNB)
  • The Bolivarian National Police (Policía Nacional Bolivariana — PNB)
  • The Bolivarian National Armed Forces (Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana — FANB)
  • Cuban military advisors surrounding Maduro
  • “Colectivos,” the pro-government paramilitary organizations that operate throughout the country
  • The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia — FARC)
  • Colombia’s National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional — ELN)

Read it at InSight Crime,

In other Venezuela news,
Venezuela has just announced an election — and it’s terrible news for democracy

Colombia evicts over 200 homeless Venezuelans from sports field squat

How Much Worse Can it Get for Venezuela’s State Oil Firm PDVSA?
Venezuela’s Most-Wanted Rebel Shared His Story, Just Before Death

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I’m getting over a flu. Juliette filled in for me yesterday at DTGB, Who Can Investigate the Investigators?

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