Fausta's Blog

American and Latin American Politics, Society, and Culture

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Good news of the day: Texas to pass Iraq and Iran as world’s No. 3 oil powerhouse

Via Kermit’s FB feed,
Texas to pass Iraq and Iran as world’s No. 3 oil powerhouse

The combined output of the Permian and Eagle Ford is expected to rise from just 2.5 million barrels per day in 2014 to 5.6 million barrels per day in 2019, according to HSBC. That means Texas will account for more than half of America’s total oil production.

By comparison, Iraq’s daily production is seen at about 4.8 million barrels, while Iran is projected to pump 3 million. Oil supplies from Iran are likely to plunge due to tough sanctions from the United States.

And we’re not energy dependent on dictatorships.

That’s something to celebrate.

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Yet another oil industry corruption scandal

This time in Nigeria,

Inside the Bribery Scandal Sweeping Through the Oil Industry. Shell and Eni paid $1.3 billion for oil rights in Nigeria. Whether the money was mostly a bribe is at the heart of one of the industry’s most dramatic criminal cases.

As you may recall, Petrobras to pay $2.95 billion to settle U.S. corruption lawsuit earlier this year.

The Pemex-Odebrecht cases are still in the headlines.

And who could forget the UN’s oil-for-food?

It’s enough to make one suspect that government-owned and UN-connected agencies are ripe for the picking.

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Mexico: Cartels cripple the country’s refineries

Nearly ten years ago, one of this blog’s readers was aware of this,
THE REFINERY RACKET: Mexico’s drug cartels, now hooked on fuel, cripple the country’s refineries

Drug gangs pressure refinery workers to tap the lifeblood of Mexico’s oil industry. One former worker fled the country. One former gang member helps authorities understand the racket.
. . .
Between 2011 and 2016, the number of unauthorized taps discovered on Mexico’s fuel lines nearly quintupled, according to a recent report by the federal auditor. Repair costs surged almost tenfold, to 1.77 billion pesos ($95 million).

A May 2017 study, commissioned by the national energy regulator and obtained by Reuters via a freedom of information request, found that thieves, between 2009 and 2016, had tapped pipelines roughly every 1.4 kms (0.86 mi) along Pemex’s approximately 14,000 km pipeline network.

After decades of poor upkeep, the refineries are bleeding money as well as fuel. In addition to unscheduled outages, which cause big operational losses, maintenance problems have led to fatal accidents, including fires and explosions.

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Introducing: Oil Price Charts

James Stafford of Oil Price.com has a great new resource, Oil Price Charts. He writes,

we have just finished an 18-month project to bring all of the different oil prices in the world (that have never been available to the public) out into the public domain and for free.
You used to have to pay a $50,000 annual fee for this pricing data, and I thought that was ridiculous, so we have created this page with the goal of bringing a bit more transparency to markets: http://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts

Most people don’t realize just how many oil prices there are in the world. You may be shocked to find out that on the 11th of October there was a 67.18% price differential between two oil blends.

So while oil prices ranged from $35.50 to $59.35, the monopoly that data companies hold over the industry meant that the price of oil was simply reported as $50.79 – the price of WTI.

I invite you to visit Oil Price Charts often, and read the Oil Price.com website’s many articles. As he explains, the significance of this data in everything from geopolitics to finance is undeniable.

Related: U.S. Output Hits All-Time High

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Venezuela: Default brings upside for Maduro?

Venezuela faces epic default as China and Russia pull the plug

“Maduro can’t restructure the debt because nobody in the world trusts his government,” said Julio Borges, the head of the National Assembly.

However (emphasis added),

“Russia and China have incentives to provide financing just for oil investment, so that they are able to get the oil repayments,” Monaldi said in an email. “If Venezuela was able to successfully restructure the debt with bond holders that would make it more attractive for Russia and China to help, but giving them more money just to pay bond holders is unlikely to happen.”

The WSJ on the benefits of being a deadbeat:
Venezuela Debt Crisis May Offer Political Upside for Maduro. Stopping payments on debt threatens economy but could increase funds earmarked for needed imports (emphasis added)

Mr. Maduro announced plans on Friday to convene bondholders in Caracas on Nov. 13 to negotiate a debt restructuring on the country’s foreign debt, estimated at between $100 billion and $150 billion. However, investors said that U.S. sanctions that restrict financial institutions from investing in new debt instruments issued by Venezuela’s authoritarian government make a deal unlikely, triggering a messy and prolonged default.

By stopping payments on the debt, Mr. Maduro could double the funds he has earmarked for imports next year by holding back on some $1.7 billion in bond interest payments due in the remainder of 2017 and about $9 billion in 2018, according to Eurasia Group, offering relief—albeit brief—for a fast collapsing economy plagued by galloping inflation and chronic food shortages.

Why next year? Because of presidential elections. Even with rampant vote rigging, there’s still a facade to be kept.

Related:
A debt restructuring that’s really a default that’s really a giant money laundering operation

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Mexico: Shootouts over oil

Four soldiers and six civilians dead:
Mexican Soldiers, Alleged Fuel Thieves Killed in Shootouts.Nearly a a dozen more injured in two clashes late Wednesday night in Palmarito. (emphasis added)

The first clash occurred shortly after sunset Wednesday when soldiers responding to a report of a pipeline tap were ambushed by gunmen who used women and children as human shields, the defense ministry said in a statement. Two soldiers were killed but the troops withdrew without returning fire to avoid harming the civilians, the ministry said.

Hundreds of soldiers and federal police returned to Palmarito a few hours later, engaging gunmen in a clash that left two more soldiers and six suspected gunmen dead, officials said. Security forces recovered armored vehicles, several rifles and other weapons.

Palmarito lies within the so-called Red Triangle, which officials have cited as one of the primary areas for theft from fuel pipelines that link refineries to central Mexico.

Last March InSight Crime reported on Corruption, Oil Theft an Explosive Cocktail for Mexico State of Puebla,

oil theft may generate much more revenue than any other local illegal activity for criminal organizations. The most recent estimates are that oil theft in Mexico generated an astounding $1.5 billion in profits in 2016.

Mexico’s oil industry generated US$18.7 billion in 2016.

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Venezuela hacks Hanke

Johns Hopkins professor Steve Hanke has been studying the Venezuelan economy for years as part of his Troubled Currencies Project. Last January Hanke ranked Venezuela as #1 in the world misery index for two years in a row,

Venezuela holds the inglorious spot of most miserable country for 2016, as it did in 2015. The failures of President Nicolas Maduro’s socialist, corrupt petroleum state have been well documented over the past year, including when Venezuela became the 57th instance of hyperinflation in the world.

Venezuela’s government oil monopoly company PDVSA is mortgaging its jewel in the crown, Citgo, which means the country is in big trouble.

How big?

Hanke’s team got hacked while researching PDVSA’s numbers. Monica Showalter reports,

A Johns Hopkins University professor found that Venezuela’s ruling Chavistas really, really don’t want anyone with knowledge of economics doing that.

On Thursday, they dispatched a cyberthug team to deny acess to the PDVSA state oil company website to all of Johns Hopkins University’s computers, after Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics there, wrote extensively about the country’s failing currency and its economic mismanagement at PDVSA. Hanke told American Thinker in a phone conversation that his academic assistant had been burrowing through the muddy and obscure details of PDVSA’s financials for hours recently. For him, the ACCESS DENIED code to the page came with a rider not seen on the rest of the university’s blocked-off computers: REPEAT OFFENDER.

Hanke tweeted a screenshot,

Chavismo tries but can’t hide the facts. And the facts show the ruinous reality of 21st Century Socialism.

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