Fausta's Blog

American and Latin American Politics, Society, and Culture

February 24, 2017 By Fausta

Ecuador: A reprieve, a runoff

Mac Margolis is enthusiastic,
Ecuador’s Voters Turn Back Latin America’s Pink Tide

So 10 million Ecuadoreans will have a second go at the polls in a runoff April 2. Suddenly, the whiff of competitive democracy in this patch of the Andes, where so-called Bolivarian socialists once called the shots, has voters in a lather. They streamed by the thousands into Quito this week to stand vigil as the National Electoral Council inexplicably drip-fed its tally.

Outside observers saw no foul play in the delay, but the anxiety was understandable. For the last decade, after all, this small and mostly poor Andean nation has lived in the shadow of Rafael Correa, a headstrong populist who ruled with one hand on the balcony and the other on the oil drum. Courting the poor, feeding the bureaucracy, bullying critics and hushing the media — all of these were part of the palace script. The Ecuadoran media watchdog Fundamedios documented 981 attacks on journalists over the last two years. (Correa’s response: Try to dissolve Fundamedios.) And if elections weren’t quite rigged, their rules were crafted to assure three-time President Correa and his ruling Alianza Pais coalition the upper hand.

More importantly, it reflects economic disasters,

In fact, Correa’s errors were merely masked by plenty, including a windfall in oil revenues, which he splashed on social programs and the bottomless bureaucracy. His aura dimmed with the end of the commodities boom, when the slump in oil prices led the way into deep recession in 2016, with only modest growth projected for this year. If once Correa could thumb his nose at foreign creditors — he defaulted on $3.2 billion in sovereign bonds in 2008 — the downturn has forced his hand. Fitch Ratings reported that Ecuador needs some $10.3 billion this year to close its deficits. In five years, the country’s debt burden has swelled from 18 percent of gross domestic product to 40 percent today, Fitch said in a client note on Feb. 14. That’s a hole not even lavish Chinese loans can cover.

I’m cautiously optimistic on the elections, in a “live to fight another day” way.

(h/t JC)

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Filed Under: Ecuador, elections, Fausta's blog, Rafael Correa

February 22, 2017 By Fausta

Ecuador: Runoff on April 2d

Ecuador Presidential Vote to Go to Second Round Runoff in April

Emili Blasco reports El partido de Correa se atasca en la Asamblea del Ecuador. El empate en diputados entre el oficialismo y la oposición acaba con la mayoría cualificada que montó el sistema bolivariano [Correa’s party stymied in Ecuador’s Assembly. The deadlock between the ruling party and the opposition ends the qualified majority that set up the bolivarian system.]

Uncertainty in Ecuador as Votes Trickle In, Opposition Confident in Second Round

Reports of voter fraud in Ecuador leaves country on the cusp of becoming another Cuba or Venezuela

Ecuador presidential election headed for an April runoff. With the Andean country on tenterhooks and the opposition protesting for prompt results, the electoral body said it was waiting for all ballots to be counted before officially proclaiming a second round.

Should Ecuador move to the right with a second-round victory for Lasso, it would end a decade of leftist rule in Ecuador and follow on the heels of Argentina, Brazil and Peru which have all swerved away from the left as a China-led commodities boom ended.

Lasso has campaigned on a platform to revive the economy, which is dependent on exports of oil, flowers and shrimp, by slashing taxes, fostering foreign investment and creating a million jobs in four years.

He has also vowed to remove Wikileaks founder Julian Assange from the Ecuadorean embassy in London and denounce Venezuela’s Socialist government.

Ecuador officials deny fraud claims in presidency vote

I’m very glad I was wrong.



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Filed Under: Ecuador, elections Tagged With: Guillermo Lasso, Lenín Moreno

February 21, 2017 By Fausta

Ecuador: No election results until . . . Thursday? UPDATED

One thing for sure, had Lenín won by a large margin, there would be no wait.

Ecuadoreans are growing impatient at the slow pace of vote counting with the results of the presidential poll delayed until Wednesday or Thursday.

National Electoral Council President Juan Pablo Pozo called on Ecuadoreans to “wait for the results with calm”.

“There are very tight margins to establish whether there will be a second round or not,” he said.

He blamed the delay on “numerical inconsistencies” in 5.5% of the ballots, while he said others were missing signatures from polling station officials.

Carlos Alberto Montaner voices concern on electoral fraud (video in Spanish), since a Lasso could win a second round,

Rafael Correa says he’ll move to Belgium at the end of his term (why Belgium?), but there’s speculation as to whether he’d run again in four years.

UPDATE
Last night’s demonstrations,

“Ecuador awakened after a ten year nightmare”

El Ecuador despertó después de una pesadilla de diez años pic.twitter.com/97pGU7ZWtC

— Emilio Palacio (@PalacioEmilio) February 21, 2017

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Filed Under: Ecuador, elections, Fausta's blog, Rafael Correa Tagged With: Guillermo Lasso, Lenín Moreno

February 20, 2017 By Fausta

Ecuador: Runoff unlikely

At The Guardian, Ecuador election: Moreno facing runoff as 40% vote looks out of reach. With almost 90% of votes counted, candidate for incumbent party just short of 40% required for outright victory

With 87% of votes counted early on Monday morning, the national electoral council gave 39.09% to Moreno, who was a former vice-president under the outgoing Rafael Correa, and 28.28% to Lasso, a 61-year-old former banker. For an outright win a candidate needs 40% and a 10-point lead over his nearest rival.

Moreno was already celebrating.

As the WSJ points out,

The election is the first time in a decade that Mr. Correa, who was legally barred from running, wasn’t on the ballot.

The opposition demands a recount,

Control Electoral de CREO informa nuestras cifras:
38.8% Lenin Moreno
30.3% Guillermo Lasso
15.2% Cynthia Viteri.
6.5% Paco Moncayo
RT!

— César Monge Ortega (@CesarMongeO) February 20, 2017

These are 5 things you need to know about Ecuador’s elections.

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Filed Under: Ecuador, elections, Fausta's blog, Rafael Correa Tagged With: Guillermo Lasso, Lenín Moreno

January 20, 2017 By Fausta

I invite you to join me in prayer on this inaugural day

From the Book of Common Prayer:

Prayers for National Life

18. For our Country

Almighty God, who hast given us this good land for our heritage: We humbly beseech thee that we may always prove ourselves a people mindful of thy favor and glad to do thy will. Bless our land with honorable industry, sound learning, and pure manners. Save us from violence, discord, and confusion; from pride and arrogance, and from every evil way. Defend our liberties, and fashion into one united people the multitudes brought hither out of many kindreds and tongues. Endue with the spirit of wisdom those to whom in thy Name we entrust the authority of government, that there may be justice and peace at home, and that, through obedience to thy law, we may show forth thy praise among the nations of the earth. In the time of prosperity, fill our hearts with thankfulness, and in the day of trouble, suffer not our trust in thee to fail; all which we ask through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

19. For the President of the United States and all in Civil Authority

O Lord our Governor, whose glory is in all the world: We commend this nation to thy merciful care, that, being guided by thy Providence, we may dwell secure in thy peace. Grant to the President of the United States, the Governor of this State (or Commonwealth), and to all in authority, wisdom and strength to know and to do thy will. Fill them with the love of truth and righteousness, and make them ever mindful of their calling to serve this people in thy fear; through Jesus Christ our Lord, who liveth and reigneth with thee and the Holy Spirit, one God, world without end. Amen.



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Filed Under: elections Tagged With: Donald Trump, Fausta's blog

January 5, 2017 By Fausta

Ecuador: The spending campaign

Ecuador will be holding a presidential election next month, on February 19. Rafael Correa is not running, but his appointed successor, Lenín Moreno, is (emphasis added):

Mild-mannered Moreno, 63, who has used a wheelchair since a botched robbery in 1998, is running on a platform of continuing his boss’ policies. And, so far, the promise is working.
. . .
In some ways, Moreno is in a race against time. As oil prices have tanked, the administration has been able to hold off a deeper economic crisis by taking on more debt and loans against future oil exports. It’s racked up almost $14 billion in debt in 2016 alone, said Jose Hidalgo, with the conservative economic think-tank CORDES.

In a country with a total GDP of US$94 billion (a little over the GDP of New Mexico), that’s a big chunk of change.

Moreno’s running-mate and current Vice President Jorge Glas was in charge of Petroecuador when allegedly at least eight current and former officials were involved in bribery and money laundering by manipulating contracts. Glas maintains he was not involved.

The election may  go to a second round if the opposition rallies around a candidate. The latest poll showed Moreno leading with 35.6%, 13 points ahead of former banker and center-right candidate Guillermo Lasso, with 22.3%.

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Filed Under: Ecuador, elections, Rafael Correa Tagged With: Guillermo Lasso, Lenín Moreno, Petroecuador

November 11, 2016 By Fausta

En español: Radio GDS Trump presidente

El 8 de Noviembre hicimos un Programa especial e histórico en la #ElectionNight, mientras esperábamos los resultados finales que darían ganador a Donald Trump por #GDSradio Mar del Plata con la Conducción de Eneas Biglione, Director Ejecutivo de la Fundación HACER y analista político internacional, María Celsa Rodríguez Blogger analista política y Directora de Relaciones Publicas de la Fundación HACER, y Guillermo Daniel Sammartino.
Fue invitada especial Fausta Rodríguez Wertz que desde Estados Unidos nos acompañó. Ella vive en el Estado de Florida y es una muy conocida bloggera conservadora, que analizó la realidad de los norteamericanos e hispanos en EEUU. Luego conectamos con la periodista Ana Mellone, que es nacida en Brasil y vive actualmente en California del Sur, y que nos contó porque voto a Hillary Clinton y porque defiende el derecho al aborto.Posteriormente nos comunicamos con la Sra Tete Lugo, que vive en Pachuca México, que es una fiel oyente de GDS radio, y expuso su mirada como mexicana analizando la inmigración y el proyecto de construir un muro entre la fronteras de Mexico y Estados Unidos, que fue un tema de la campaña de Trump. Mas tarde nos acompañó Felipe Caorsi Director de Proyectos de la Fundacion HACER en Uruguay y Francisco Javier Sanchez desde Chile.
Antes de cerrar el especial programa ya se vislumbraba el triunfo de Trump, algo que lo habíamos dicho en programas anteriores contra todas encuestas y análisis periodísticos que decían que la ganadora era Hillary Clinton y que hoy nos dieron la razón los resultados de las elecciones.

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Filed Under: Argentina, elections Tagged With: Fausta's blog, Radio GDS

November 11, 2016 By Fausta

The foreign countries’ dilemma: They bet all on Hillary

There’s wailing and gnashing of teeth abroad: Most foreign countries failed to hedge their bets, and now they have to face what they thought was impossible. El País describes the situation, not just in Spain, but across the world,
Madrid improvises Plan B after surprise win for Donald Trump. Rajoy government bet on Clinton victory; now faces an unfamiliar Washington

After assuming that Hillary Clinton would win the US elections, the Spanish government must now urgently improvise ways to build bridges with an administration led by Donald Trump.

And they can’t count on the king, either,

But Spain’s Mariano Rajoy cannot count on the royal family’s mediation this time around. Juan Carlos’ son, Felipe VI, is friends with Bill and Hillary Clinton, but not with the billionaire who will be sitting in the Oval Office from January.

Not that it couldn’t have been prevented,

Spanish PP deputies in the EU parliament did not attend the Cleveland convention that nominated Trump in July, but they did travel to the Philadelphia convention where Clinton was put forward as the Democratic Party candidate.

Here’s a bit of advice: Next time, work both sides of the aisle.

UPDATE
Linked to by Designs On The Truth. Thank you!

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Filed Under: elections, politics, Spain Tagged With: Donald Trump, Fausta's blog

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