Fausta's Blog

American and Latin American Politics, Society, and Culture

September 21, 2007 By Fausta

It’s Friday, so Castro’s not yet dead

Sure as rain, every Friday there’s a rumor or denial concerning the not-dead-yet dictator of the island-prison:
BOOK: CASTRO’S SON SAYS DAD DYING; BUT CUBAN LEADER DETERMINED TO OUTLIVE BUSH PRESIDENCY

Tell ya what: “Castro” is determined to outlive all American presidencies because he is a dictator.

And of course, Fidel’s Mini-Me pipes in: Cuba’s Castro nearly died but is OK now: Chavez

UPDATE: Oh, look, he’s even wearing wearing the Adidas jogging suit, and looking healthy again. The BBC has a video report here.

Prior jogging-suit photo-ops here and here

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Filed Under: Communism, Cuba, Cubazuela

September 18, 2007 By Fausta

Latin America this week: Cuba, Mexico, Guatemala, Bolivia, Colombia, and Brazil

Cuba:
Even The Economist has theories on the “announcement”:

So just before October 10th, the date of Cuba’s declaration of independence from Spain in 1868, expect another wave of rumours in Miami that Mr Castro has passed away.

I won’t believe any rumors until the Cuban government produces
a. a corpse,
and b. DNA for corroboration.
As far as I’m concerned, it ain’t over until Horatio sings.

Babalu blog has links to John Stossel’s 20/20 entire program on healthcare.

————————————————————

Mexico:

On September 10th six explosions ripped through gas pipelines in the state of Veracruz, disrupting oil and natural-gas supplies, shutting down factories and forcing thousands from their homes. It was the third such attack in the past three months, and the most severe. Left-wing rebels claimed responsibility. Pemex, the state oil company, says it hopes to restore a full service within the next few days.

Who was behind the explosions?

Group that attacked pipeline in Mexico is financed by Chavez

The subversive group Revolutionary Popular Army (EPR, left), that attributed yesterday the attacks against six gasoductos of state Mexican Petroleums (PEMEX), is financed by the government of Hugo Chavez, according to a report of press based on the Mexican intelligence service.

Yesterday Mary Anastasia O’Grady wrote about Calderon’s misguided economic reforms,

Having one win under his belt, Mr. Calderon moved this summer to introduce a fiscal reform designed to close revenue shortfalls. A better course of action, with oil topping $80 a barrel, would have been opening the oil market to private investment. But this would have challenged the theology that says that the inefficient state-owned oil monopoly Pemex is sacred. Mr. Calderon apparently has decided, for now, against questioning that taboo.

Instead, he chose to go after the productive private sector of the economy, where at least some large companies are known to take advantage of a complex, exemption-ridden regime to dodge tax payments. The choice has not been fruitful.

As I reported in my July 2 column, Hacienda Minister (Treasury Secretary) Agustin Carstens, formerly of the International Monetary Fund, chose not to seek growth through lower corporate tax rates and simplification. Instead, he crafted a plan to create a corporate alternative minimum tax. The proposal raised the cost of labor on some part of the work force and complicated the code.

This has the rancid odor of a tax hike, not that of a flat tax, and as such it will not lead to growth and prosperity.

————————————————————–

Colombia:
Also at The Economist, an article on Uribe’s move to involve Chavez in the FARC negotiations,

The bigger risk is that by bringing in Mr Chávez, Mr Uribe has granted the FARC an avenue to international legitimacy. If that were the prelude to serious peace talks, so much the better. But Mr Chavez, an elected president but one who has ridden roughshod over his country’s institutions, is hardly best placed to persuade the FARC to accept the rules of democracy.

Uribe has accepted a European proposal on a safe haven, and Sarko is also pressing for a hostage accord, since French-Colombian hostage Ingrid Betancourt, has become a cause celebre in France, even when in Colombia she’s another high-profile hostage among many.

Quite frankly, adding Chavez to this equation strikes me a insane.

Venezuela News and Views has an excellent post on this “very confusing situation where everyone involved is at least playing a double game.”

————————————————————–

Argentina:
Guess who‘s meddling in the elections?

There is a divide among governments in Latin America and the left is making a comeback, with a backlash against free-market reforms and US policies. The “responsible” camp is led by two socialists who have become very pragmatic. In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has followed moderate macroeconomic policies, with some innovative initiatives on hunger, land reform and energy. In Chile, President Michelle Bachelet has successfully led a coalition with the Christian Democrats and achieved strong growth and reductions in poverty. Felipe Calderon, Mexico’s conservative president, is following a similar course.

The “irresponsible” camp is led by Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan president, seeking to spread his “21st-century socialism” across Latin America with populist, nationalistic policies fuelled by the country’s rising oil revenues. He has nationalised private assets, forced the departure of US companies, cracked down on the media and other opposition outlets and funded his own corps of leftist candidates throughout Latin America. He has proposed a “Bank of the South” to replace the US-backed International Monetary Fund and recommended a change in the constitution that would allow him to serve for life. On Mr Chavez’s side are Bolivia, Ecuador and, of course, Cuba.

Argentina has been teetering on the brink of the Chavez camp and the signals from Ms Fernandez are not promising. Since Argentina’s economic collapse in 2001, its government has repudiated billions of dollars in debts to foreign lenders, accepted billions more of Venezuela’s petrodollars and flirted with Mr Chavez’s anti-American policies. Mr Kirchner accepted an offer from Mr Chavez for nearly $4bn to pay off International Monetary Fund debt. In exchange, he lent his support to Venezuela’s bid to join Mercosur, the regional trade bloc, and to Mr Chavez’s proposed Bank of the South. Brazil has thrown cold water on the bank proposal and Mr Chavez has been forced to put off his bond sales, reputedly for lack of buyers.

Ms Fernandez has an opportunity to shift course and join the responsible camp. The country is back on its feet with about $44bn in foreign reserves from the boom in commodity prices. In 2006 it recorded a fiscal surplus equal to 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product. It is time the country moved away from Venezuela and joined Brazil, Chile and Mexico. There are several steps Ms Fernandez should take. First, Argentina should take no more Venezuelan funds. Second, it should drop its support for a Bank of the South. Third, it should clean up its investment climate so it can re-enter international capital markets.

Let’s hope they do.

————————————————————–

Guatemala:
The NYT has recently started to run insightful articles on Latin America. Last week Marc Lacey explored the reasons behind Rigoberta Menchu’s defeat in Guatemala. The article is under Times Select, but you can read it at the HACER website,

She was not from around here. That was obvious to anyone who scrutinized the details of the embroidery on the traditional Mayan clothes she wore to campaign. She is a Quiche Mayan, from the midwestern highlands. Her indigenous language is different, unintelligible to a local Tz’utujil speaker. Nineteen other Mayan groups live in Guatemala, each linguistically distinct. Because of the rivalries and conflicts among Mayans, Ms. Menchú had to win over Mayan voters just like any other outsider.

Read the rest.

—————————————————————

Bolivia;
Simon Romero, also at the NYT, says that Evo Morales is bringing stability to Bolivia.

Unfortunately Evo’s vision for Bolivia involves totalitarianism, reliance on oil and gas (and coca) instead of economic development and wealth creation, and closer ties with Iran,

On the political front, critics say Mr. Morales is tilting toward authoritarianism, with rough verbal treatment of opponents and a proposal by supporters to be re-elected indefinitely. And some policies seem erratic and inspired by President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela, like his moves this month to establish diplomatic ties with Iran while announcing visa requirements for American visitors.

“Chávez sees the creation of a great Latin American fatherland, a vision that I share,” said Mr. Morales, defending his aid from Venezuela, while criticizing foreign assistance that requires conditions like coca eradication. He remains the leader of the Federacion del Tropico, saying he would return to growing coca when his presidency ends.

Meanwhile, last month the parliamentarians came to blows over corruption. It won’t be the last time.

—————————————————————

Brazil:
Aside from becoming a propaganda vehilce, I see no benefit to the government opening a government-run TV station in a country with 600 TV channels.

Special thanks to Eneas of Hispanic American Center for Economic Research for the links.
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Filed Under: Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Guatemala, Latin America, Mexico

September 12, 2007 By Fausta

‘Fidel’ is now a truther; Putin dissolved the government

I was about to post on this earlier this morning when my internet connection was rudely interrupted:

Fidel Castro says U.S. fooled world over 9/11

Ailing Cuban leader Fidel Castro said the U.S. government misinformed Americans and the world about 9/11, echoing conspiracy theories about the terror attacks against the United States six years ago.

In an essay read by a Cuban television presenter on Tuesday night, Castro said the Pentagon was hit by a rocket, not a plane, because no traces were found of its passengers.

“Fidel” or his amanuensis have now officially joined the Truthers.

In other “Fidel” news, the Cuban Culture Minister says Castro’s not dying.

Which is probably true.

Moving right along,
Vlad is taking time off from his modeling job to dissolve the government and name a new prime minister,

Russia President Vladimir Putin has dismissed his entire cabinet and replaced his prime minister in a bid to pave the way for his successor. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov submitted his resignation, and the speaker of the State Duma later announced he was being replaced by the relatively unknown Victor Zubkov, head of the country’s money-laundering watchdog agency.

He probably won’t stay there for long.

Though it’s no safe bet, many analysts have their money on Putin ally and KGB veteran Sergei Ivanov to be voted in as the new president in the March 2008 election. It is probable that Putin will put him in the place of Zubkov at the last minute, since Russian presidents usually come from the post of prime minister, as Putin did himself to succeed Boris Yeltsin.

UpdateZubkov seems to want to run for president next year.

Those of us old enough to remember the Cold War days find no joy in reading that Vlad’s also embarking on a new arms race.

What does this all mean? Pajamas Media has an article by Sean Guillory that sheds light on the subject.

But don’t be surprised if the “dad of all bombs” turns up at a Caribbean nation near you, along with the Russian subs.

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Filed Under: Caribbean, Cuba, Cubazuela, Fidel Castro, Russia, Vladimir Putin

August 29, 2007 By Fausta

By the way, "Castro" didn’t endorse Clinton Obama

As I explain in my article today, while in his latest article “Castro” refers to Clinton/Obama “the seemingly invincible ticket” he did not endorse them, contrary to what you may interpret from reading this.

In my article I have a link to the original Granma article from “Castro”, and I even bothered to read it in the original Spanish.

The reason? Both Hillary & Obama want democracy for Cuba.

Jimmy Carter, on the other hand, goes over big with “Fidel”.

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Filed Under: Barak Obama, Communism, Cuba, Democrats, elections, Fidel Castro, Hillary Clinton

August 29, 2007 By Fausta

Cubazuela today: The "seemingly invincible Clinton-Obama", and Buckely on Hugo

“Fidel” has written another article for Granma, and he damns “the seemingly invincible ticket of Clinton-Obama” for asking for a democratic government in Cuba. However, he heaps praise on Jimmy Carter, that friend of Hugo.

Apart from the usual stuff one expects from the invisible dictator who writes newspaper articles from an undisclosed location, “Castro” also mentions that he and Che used to play golf together and that Che had caddied in his younger days.

Who’d have thun it!

——————————————————-

William F.Buckley notices that Hugo Chavez is an Annoyance (what took you so long, Bill?)

The thing about Hugo Chavez is that he is not crazy. He just acts crazy.

On the foreign-policy front, he endears himself, or seeks to do so, to every tyrant on Earth. He went to Iran and intended to visit North Korea, but there, Venezuela’s National Assembly drew the line. He is abject in his praise of Fidel Castro, and unequivocal in his hatred of American institutions.

It is a pity; but we need to remind ourselves that every now and then democracy simply spits in one’s face. The people who voted in 1933 for Adolf Hitler were driven by that dangerous temptation.

In Latin America, the demagogue has a great natural advantage. The reason for this is that the United States represents, to the angry Latin American voter, the hothouse of hateful institutions. Hugo Chavez is head of a country of 27 million people. They are mostly poor. And with poverty there often comes pain from observing those who do not share in it.

We all know where this is leading them.

Expect it to get worse for a long time.

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Filed Under: Communism, Cuba, Cubazuela, Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez, Venezuela

August 25, 2007 By Fausta

Postpolitical on Castro

During yesterday’s rumors about the “not-dead-yet” Castro, I wrote at Pajamas Media that

Is Castro dead? Until the Cuban government makes an official announcement, there is no way of knowing for sure.

The Cuban government, however, has very little to gain and a lot to lose if and when they make an official announcement.

Today Postpolitical (via Barcepundit) has a brilliant post on the Cuban government’s options (emphasis added):

As even El Gusano notes, the current state of transition from Fidel to Raul has provoked no visible popular revolt or known palace coup attempts. This is the point at which the state is most vulnerable as well. If Raul is as clever as is claimed, he might just realize that he has hit upon the ultimate method to perpetuate autocratic despotism: rule as regent to an immortal corpse.

Consider it if you will. A dead dictator certainly can’t be assassinated or even really overthrown. What’s to seize from a pile of bones? Raul need not risk a genuine political transition, or take the time to build his own personality cult, or even give a single speech to persuade the masses to accept him as their new surrogate secular deity and adopted father. The corpse already has all that.

Sure, the secret will leak out eventually. But is the notion that Castro is both dead and ruling, really too much doublethink for a people who are told daily they’re drowning in plenty on empty stomachs? The Cuban state has been lying to the people about almost everything for over four decades now. Why should they suddenly lose obedience over this lie? The people might even be eager to consent to the charade. After all, could a dead man’s policies be any worse than a living Castro’s?

The benefits are considerable for Raul. If they were to accept the corpse ruler, communism in Cuba could last for a thousand years, because a dead man cannot die. But also because the nature of that political contract – accepting rule by a dead head of state –is perhaps the ultimate exchange of independence for total social control. For any people, I can think of no greater indignity or humiliation than the realization that they are in fact governed by a nonexistent executive, which an entire government pretends to believe exists. If that is granted, anything can follow.

I heartily agree with Postpolitical: Don’t expect any official notices that Castro’s kicked the bucket for the foreseeable future, folks.

Kim Jong-il is probably watching how it all plays out, too.

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Filed Under: Communism, Cuba, Fidel Castro, North Korea

August 24, 2007 By Fausta

About those rumors….

My friend Val at Babalu has gone out on a limb, Perez Hilton sticks by his guns, and Drudge Report is abuzz with the rumor that Fidel Castro is dead.

I’ve been listening to Cuban radio stations from the island-prison for the past 5 hours and there is not only no official announcement, there is absolutely nothing out of the ordinary; their usual programming has continued as it does any other day.

Read my article at Pajamas Media for more.

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Filed Under: Communism, Cuba, Fidel Castro

July 26, 2007 By Fausta

"Fidel absent as Cuba celebrates"


Says the Beeb,

Fidel Castro has written a series of articles but not appeared in public
Cuba’s acting president, Raul Castro, is leading revolution day celebrations, filling in for his brother Fidel who was last seen in public a year ago.

Ah, huh!

And why would that be?

Update
Meanwhile, over in Venezuela…

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Filed Under: Communism, Cuba, Fidel Castro

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