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American and Latin American Politics, Society, and Culture

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Venezuela: Did the Minister of Defense back out at the last minute?

I have documented every post on Latin America strenuously, but this post is an exception. I do not have contacts in the country or in any of the other places involved, so please read with caution.

In his Thursday, May 2, 2019 show, Jaime Bayly described that the Minister of Defense for the National Armed Forces of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, General Vladimir Padrino, had agreed to aid Juan Guaidó remove Nicolas Maduro from office.

Who is General Padrino?
In a post three years ago, I mentioned that Padrino, upon taking the job of commanding the country’s entire supply chain possibly “was given the job by Cuban intelligence to keep an eye on Maduro.” Additionally, Nicolás Maduro had declared “All the ministries, all the ministers, all the state institutions are at the service and in absolute subordination” to the head of the armed forces, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino – including,

a new military-industrial mining, oil and gas company that will rival the state-owned oil company PdVSA.

In other words, Padrino lives up to his name, which means Godfather. His agreement would be crucial for any change to take place.

I must point out that Wikipedia correctly states,

On 22 September 2017, Canada sanctioned Padrino due to rupture of Venezuela’s constitutional order following the 2017 Venezuelan Constituent Assembly election.[6][7] The United States government has also sanctioned Padrino on 25 September 2018 for his role in solidifying President Maduro’s power in Venezuela.[8] Vladimir Padrino López is also banned from entering Colombia.[9]

The Bayly YouTube, in Spanish

Bayly said that Padrino had agreed to having Maduro leave for Cuba and install Guaidó as interim president in exchange for being allowed to keep the fortune he’s amassed over the years and avoiding prosecution by the U.S. The U.S. would also give the new interim administration $20billion to pay Russia for its oil interests in the country.

This was scheduled to take place on May 1st.

But Padrino changed his mind,

ABC Spain reports that General Padrino backed out at the last moment, even when the negotiation had lasted for several months. Bayly claims that Padrino demanded at the last moment to be permanent president.

The right price?

On Sunday May 5th, the Moscow Times published an opinion piece, Putin Is Ready to Give Up Venezuela for the Right Price.
Sergei Lavrov and Mike Pompeo will soon meet in Helsinki to discuss Venezuela’s future.

On May 3, U.S. President Donald Trump called Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to flag American concerns over Russia’s “disruptive role” in Venezuela and stress his country’sdetermination to ensure Venezuela’s return to democratic rule.

The price may involve Ukraine,

For Moscow, a deal of equals on Venezuela where Russia helps the U.S. diffuse the crisis by engineering a constitutional transition, should involve an equally significant concession by the U.S. (on a par with JFK-Khrushchev deal to remove nuclear missiles from Cuba and Turkey) to pressure Kiev into fully implementing the Minsk-2 agreements that would truncate Ukraine’s sovereignty and allow Moscow to retain some degree of control over Kiev’s security policies.
…
Moscow is ready to sell its stake in Maduro, but it is still unclear whether Washington is ready to offer the right price.

Interesting times

If Russia is out of the picture, there’s still the question of China and Iran remaining in the country.

If Maduro leaves, how about Tarek El Aissami, Vice President indicted by the U.S. for drug charges?

Additionally, I doubt very much that Cuba would give up its control of Venezuela’s security services.

This coming week promises to be very interesting indeed.

UPDATE:
Linked by Ed Driscoll at Instapundit. Thank you!
Linked by Da Tech Guy. Thank you!

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Venezuela: Inflation and woes

Venezuela announces 99.6 percent devaluation of official forex rate

The central bank said the first auction of its new DICOM system yielded an exchange rate of 30,987.5 bolivars per euro, equivalent to around 25,000 per dollar.

That is a devaluation of 86.6 percent with respect to the previous DICOM rate and 99.6 percent from the subsidized rate of 10 bolivars per dollar, which was eliminated last week. (goo.gl/TRuF2Z)

How Fast Are Prices Skyrocketing in Venezuela? See Exhibit A: the Egg. With hyperinflation at 13,000%, eggs become essential to bartering (emphasis added)

Such is the ordeal in a country stricken with hyperinflation and a government so flummoxed on how to fix the distortions of its crumbling economy that it’s resorting to introducing what it says is a bitcoin-like cryptocurrency. The “petro” would eclipse the near worthless “strong bolivar,” which has lost 98% of its value against the dollar in the past year.

The problem is that in a country as broke as Venezuela, the government can’t print enough bills or pay the hefty fees for commercial printers to supply them. Paying with plastic? Credit-card readers seldom work.

Additionally, Venezuela Ranked Last in the Rule of Law Index 2017-2018.

And, another one from Steve Hanke,

Across the border,

Colombia Opens Border Shelter for Venezuelans Fleeing Crisis.Government opens facility near border city of Cúcuta as some 35,000 Venezuelans cross into the country each day

The facility, opened Saturday near the border city of Cúcuta, is expected to provide shelter of up to 48 hours for 120 people a day. Pregnant mothers, the elderly and minors who entered the country legally will be given priority. It will be administered by the Red Cross.

And they come to stay: Once-rich Venezuelans live as beggars in Colombia, but they don’t want to go back. “Bogotá officials believe that as many as 600,000 Venezuelans are now living in Colombia.”

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Venezuela: Oscar Perez killed by police? UPDATED

Oscar Perez, the former police helicopter pilot who last year attacked the Supreme Court and Interior Ministry, has been killed, according to government sources (emphasis added),

Oscar Perez, a Venezuelan police pilot accused of stealing a helicopter and using it to attack the country’s Supreme Court in June, was killed Monday in Caracas, a government official told CNN.

The high-ranking member of the Venezuelan government asked to remain anonymous. CNN has not been able to independently confirm Perez’s death.

“BREAKING NEWS: Óscar Pérez is wounded by an exploded grenade launched by security forces surrounding him. He denounces that Maduro’s regime is shooting at them and do not allow them to surrender.”

Roundup:
Venezuelan Helicopter Pilot Who Rebelled Against Dictatorship Livestreamed Raid that Killed Him

Venezuela forces launch deadly assault, capture rebel police officers

The assault was made public early Monday by Pérez himself, who posted video snippets on social media, including one in which he appears with a bloodied face.

“They are firing at us with RPG, grenades and grenade launchers, snipers,” Pérez says in one video. “There are civilians in here. We told them that we’re going to turn ourselves in and they don’t want to let us surrender. They want to kill us.”

A Day of Blood

A police operation for the capture of former CICPC inspector Oscar Pérez and his team took the entire day in Venezuelan social media. By 11:00 p.m., there was no official statement about his situation, only reports of the police takeover of the Bello Monte morgue, as an insinuation that his corpse might be there. Oscar Pérez’ group made a live digital recount of the assault they faced, uploading videos on his Instagram account (@equlibriogv) that showed what was happening. An unprecedented method that raised more suspicion than solidarity and prompted official mouthpieces to make unwise statements.

Two police officers and several “terrorists” have been killed in an operation to capture a helicopter pilot accused of leading an armed rebellion in Venezuela last year, officials say.

Venezuelan forces surrounded a house in the town of El Junquito, near the capital, Caracas, as they targeted the “cell” linked to pilot Oscar Pérez.

The authorities said they had arrested five people who they accuse of being part of a criminal group.

It is unclear what became of Mr Pérez.

Venezuelans Watch as Soldiers Besiege Rebel Group. Rogue police pilot Oscar Perez posts videos online as his supporters engage in gun battle at hideout

The saga of a police pilot and former actor who authorities said stole a helicopter in June and tossed grenades over official buildings took another violent turn as government forces said they had engaged in a bloody shootout with him and supporters at their rural hideout.

Venezuelans watched on Monday as Oscar Perez posted videos online of the fighting between special-forces soldiers and his group of civilians and former military personnel.

“Venezuela, they’re killing us!” Mr. Perez said in a video amid gunfire as blood streamed down the side of his face. His fate wasn’t known Monday evening. He has been calling for rebellion against President Nicolás Maduro’s autocratic rule.

La inhumana indiferencia del venezolano ante la ejecución de Óscar Pérez

UPDATE
CONFIRMED

After hours without revealing what Oscar Pérez’s fate was, Justice Minister Néstor Reverol gave a news conference on Tuesday.

In it he said that Mr Pérez was among seven “terrorists” killed in the siege.

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Cuba: The forgotten Escambray

Mary O’Grady writes about A Soviet Cleansing in Cuba.The Russians used their experience at home to annihilate dissident peasants.

Most Americans have never heard of the anti-Castro uprising in Cuba’s Escambray Mountains, which began in 1959 and took Fidel and the Soviet Union six years to put down. At the 100th anniversary of the Bolshevik Revolution, the episode is worth revisiting. If not for 400 Soviets sent to Cuba under the command of the Red Army and the KGB in 1961, it is unlikely that Castro would have prevailed.

What happened in the Escambray pokes a giant hole in Castro’s narrative that his revolution was a justified power grab supported by working-class and rural Cubans. The fact is that when Cubans began to understand that Fidel planned to replace Fulgencio Batista as the next dictator and to impose communism, many rebelled. None fought harder than central Cuba’s guajiros—small land owners and tenant farmers.
. . .
Castro understood the importance of controlling the press, foreign as well as domestic. He used that control to popularize his version of events. He framed the resistance—those who rejected his communist takeover—as a white, urban aristocracy unhappy because it was losing its privilege under his new justice. Meanwhile, he wiped out whole farming communities with Stalinesque ruthlessness, and he did it with guidance from the Kremlin, which exported its experience in intelligence gathering and repression.

Read the whole thing.

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Venezuela: Restructuring debt?

The guy in charge of the commission’s in Washington’s drug kingpin list. The Finance Minister is under U.S. sanctions for alleged corruption.

And the investors couldn’t get information on how to attend the commission’s meeting in Caracas on Nov. 13, “which happens to be the deadline for almost $300 million in outstanding bond interest payments.”

There was no information on what the requisites are for attending the meeting, where it would take place or whether the government would provide accommodation and transport.

In short, it was A Meeting About Nothing.

Gee, could this supposed meeting be just a prop so Maduro could blame the default on someone else?

I call it a Capt. Louis Renault Moment,

Cross-posted at WoW! Magazine.

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