Fausta's Blog

American and Latin American Politics, Society, and Culture

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Are you shopping on Black Friday?

Retailers Panic: 63% Of Americans Plan Not To Shop On Black Friday:

participation in this year’s Black Friday looks like it may be the worst in history: according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,639 adults showed 63%, or nearly two-thirds, did not plan to shop on Black Friday this year. Some 32% said they plan to finish about half of their holiday shopping on that day. While selling tactics are certainly a factor, one wonders how much of decline in spending is due to lack of disposable income for the tapped out US consumer?

“The holiday season is expanding, and Black Friday is no longer the kickoff for the season,” said Natalie Kotlyar, who heads retail and consumer products at business advisory firm BDO Consumer, adding many start holiday shopping at Halloween, Labor Day or even Amazon’s Prime Day on July 12.

Still, retailers are not only not giving up but, as Reuters reports, are on the verge of panic, and have not only redoubled efforts this year to boost sales with familiar tactics but greater intensity, all of which assure even lower margins, but are rolling out the heavy artillery to draw in those consumers who will go out on Friday.

I’ve never understood Black Friday.

Some of it is cultural: I grew up around people who were not shoppers. The women purchased their Christmas items when they were not at work, the men waited until the very last minute, and I don’t recall stores in Puerto Rico doing Black Friday promotions. I’m not certain, but I don’t think stores in Latin America did then, either.

Another reason is that I have been shopping on line for years since, no matter where I live, I always have friends and relatives in other areas. Before the Internet, I shopped at stores that shipped.

The third reason is that, while I certainly like purchasing things, I hate shopping in stores, especially during Christmas season with the sensory overload of music-decorations-parking messes. When I shop in stores, my “inner guy” takes over: I decide ahead of time what it is I’ll get, go directly to find that item, pay, and leave.

And lastly, my gift wrapping skills are woefully non-existent. Thank goodness for colored tissue and decorative little bags.

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And now for the pitch: If you may want to shop through my Amazon links and my advertisers, you will help support this blog, which I truly appreciate,

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Cuba: Brazil, Odebrecht, & Lula

What do they all have in common?
Capitol Hill Cubans explain:

Brazil’s state development bank (“BNDES”) has frozen loan disbursements for Cuba’s Mariel port and “special economic development zone” (“SEDZ”), as part of a major corruption investigation.

As we all know, the Mariel port and SEDZ project was built pursuant to a shady deal between Cuban dictator Raul Castro and former Brazilian president Lula da Silva.

Pursuant to the deal, Brazilian engineering firm Odebrecht would receive nearly $800 million in financing from BNDES, in partnership with a shadow company of the Cuban military called Almacenes Universales, S.A.

This past Monday, Brazilian prosecutors charged Lula da Silva; Odebrecht CEO Marcelo Odebrecht, who is already serving a 19-year sentence for separate corruption charges; and nine others over allegations that Lula secured BNDES funding for Odebrecht projects in Angola. In return, prosecutors said, Odebrecht bribed Lula and some people close to him.

Have no doubt, Cuba’s Mariel project will be next.

Go to the link for more, as CHP has been following this story for years.

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Mexico: The Trump/peso index, part dos

I posted on Monday on the Trump/peso index, since a Mexican currency analyst found that the peso declines as Trump’s odds for POTUS rise. Yesterday the WSJ picked up the story:
Mexican Peso Recovers After Falling on Clinton News. Higher oil prices and less hawkish outlook for U.S. interest rates helped peso recover lost ground

The news of Mrs. Clinton’s health and comments from several U.S. Federal Reserve officials ahead of next week’s policy meeting contributed to the peso’s roller-coaster ride Monday.

Higher U.S. interest rates would make dollar investments relative more attractive, putting Fed moves among principal risks for the Mexican peso.

Silvio Canto posits,

Is the Mexican peso a poll about the U.S. election?  I don’t think so. It is a statement on concerns about the Mexican economy, such as low oil prices. It is also about exports and having a peso that helps Mexican exporters. That was the consensus of an economic summary that I read a few months ago.

Trump causing a weakening of the Mexico peso? I don’t think so and pray that it is not so. Mexico has been floating its peso since the late 1990s and it’s been good for both sides. Again, I saw a Mexican peso devaluation first hand and it was not fun, even if I went out that weekend and bought some nice business suits suddenly cheaper in dollars!

If Trump wins, it’ll be interesting to see if he’ll push for a renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, a point Peña Nieto agreed on.

Post re-edited to add missing HTML

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Mexico: The Trump/peso index

A Mexican currency analyst has found that the peso declines as Trump’s odds for POTUS rise:

Over the past four months, Mexico’s currency has repeatedly declined when Trump’s election outlook improves and rallied when his odds of winning slump. The peso tumbled to a 2 1/2-month low Monday after his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, canceled a two-day trip to California because she’s suffering from pneumonia.
. . .
“There’s not a lot of appetite to go long the peso given the risk for a Trump victory,” said [head of currency strategy for Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB in Mexico City  Juan Carlos] Alderete, who develops game plans for a team of currency and options traders at Mexico’s largest publicly-traded bank. “Among the different risk factors that affect all markets, this is one that could have greater consequences specifically for Mexico.”

And it makes Mexican goods less expensive for the American market.

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Ecuador: Canada abets attempt to extort Chevron

Remember how a Brazilian prosecutor sided with Chevron after U.S. courts found that the environmental charges were fraudulent?

Not only was Steven Donziger was found guilty of fraud (in a 500-page decision plus 89-page appendix),  Patton Boggs, the former #1 lobbying law firm in the country, had to issue Chevron an apology, a $15million payment, and most remarkably,

Perhaps more unusual is the lawfirm’s agreement to deliver partners James Tyrrell and Eric Westenberger to Gibson Dunn’s New York offices for depositions overseen by a court-appointed special master. The firm has also agreed to turn over documents, provided its former clients don’t prevail on challenges under the attorney-client privilege.

On August 8 this year,

A federal appeals court ruled that, because of fraud committed by their American lawyer, the victims of this 23-year-old environmental disaster couldn’t collect in the U.S.—or possibly anywhere else.

Well, now the same Ecuadorian plaintiffs are getting a hearing in a Canadian court. Jazz Shaw writes about how The Chevron Shakedown threatens to turn Canada’s legal system into a disgrace (h/t TCS)

If Canada’s courts are seen as so friendly to environmentalist hijacking that they can manage this feat, the damage to Canada over the long run will be very real. This is a case which has been swatted down not only in the United States, but also in courts in Europe and South America as well. It was based on fraud to the point where its chief American conspirator, Steven Donziger, has been accused of racketeering. Imagine what lesson multi-national corporations will take from this if Greenpeace is allowed to tip the scales and obtain a massive judgement against Chevron in Canada given the history behind this odious lawsuit. Why would anyone want to risk doing business there on a large scale? Better to pull up stakes and focus your efforts on nations where you can expect some level of equitable treatment under the law.

Related: Prior posts on Chevron

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Why American companies buy Venezuelan oil

Yesterday Jazz Shaw asked, Why are we propping up Venezuela with crude oil purchases?

As I was going through the import export numbers I was rather surprised to find that the one country who doesn’t seem to have been much affected by our reduced dependence on foreign sources is Venezuela. In fact,they’re recording a recent net increase in crude oil exports to the United States.
. . .
In case you were wondering, Venezuela is doing quite well in terms of their business with us. We are still their number one customer for crude oil exports and their shipping volume only declined 6 percent in the first seven months of 2016. Here’s the question which should be on everyone’s minds… why? Yes, I understand it’s a free market and I don’t want the government coming in and tinkering with it. Also, they produce some very heavy crude hybrids which are specific to particular production needs. But overall, we have plenty of options. We’ve broken the barrier of being self-sufficient for all intents and purposes, particularly when you include the oil we import from our most reliable partner, Canada.

As a country, the U.S. has “broken the barrier,” up to a point. And Canada also plays an important part – especially after this year’s massive fires.

I asked KH, a friend of this blog with decades of experience in the oil industry and this is his reply (emphasis added),

With the fires in Canada, production of heavy crude went way down. What Jazz and most people don’t understand is the a lot of oil production in Texas isn’t really oil but condensate and only because of legislation in the 1970’s in DC it is called oil and only in the USA, nowhere else in the world.

Certain refineries are configured for heavy and very heavy crude oil. It is necessary to keep up production of petroleum coke, a product used in a number of industrial applications. Off the top of my head, just in Texas and Louisiana, we need several million barrels per day of heavy or very heavy crude oil. The only the place that produces this type is California Monterey Basin (Bakersfield and Los Angeles areas)

So, to recap, Venezuelan oil

  1. has specific qualities that sets it apart
  2. is necessary for the production of petroleum coke, which is used in industrial applications
  3. the purchase of Venezuelan oil is entirely legal
  4. Canadian heavy oil production decreased, there is not enough domestic supply in the U.S.
  5. Additionally, KH explains that other suppliers in Ecuador, Colombia, Mexico and Brazil are not sufficient or adequate enough.

And, by the way, the U.S. is not “propping up Venezuela”. The private businesses involved in the transactions are carrying a necessary and legal trade of goods.

 

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Venezuela takes over Kimberly-Clark plant

After K-C had to stop production because they could not get raw materials:

“Kimberly Clark will continue producing for all Venezuelans and is now in the hands of the workers,” Labor Minister Oswaldo Vera said Monday in a televised address from the company’s plant in central Aragua state, before signing an order to take it over. The labor ministry claims Kimberly Clark had violated Venezuelan law by firing over 900 workers without consulting the government.

And why was that? (emphasis added)

Strict currency controls prevent companies in Venezuela from buying dollars with local earnings.

“It doesn’t matter who’s running the factory,” said Henkel Garcia, director of the Caracas business consultancy Econometrica. “The bottom line is that there are no raw materials that anyone can afford to import.“

Venezuela’s President Says Citibank Will Close Government Accounts Amid Financial Crisis; Citibank says

The lender has decided to stop correspondent banking and servicing some accounts in the South American nation, New York-based Citigroup said in an e-mailed statement. The firm said the decision “is not a reflection of our commitment” to the country, and that it will continue discussions with the administration of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

As I had posted last month, Venezuela doesn’t have enough money to pay its oil drillers.

Miguel Octavio posts on Myths And Realities Of The Distorted Venezuelan Economy Part II; bottom line,

The economy is simply trapped in the hands of an incompetent, inefficient and corrupt Government that has tried to control everything.

Daniel posts the Diary of Venezuelan [sic] businesses demise

The Colombia-Venezuela Border: Open To Smugglers, Closed To The Desperate.

On Sunday, 30,000 Venezuelans crossed into Colombia to buy food

after Venezuela opened their common border to allow its people to buy food and medicine, officials say.

The frontier, closed by Venezuela last August as part of a crime crackdown, was to open for 12 hours.

…

Last week, about 500 Venezuelan women broke through the border controls in search of food.

The surprising thing is that they returned to Venezuela at the end of the day – as Jaime Bayly said last night, it shows they still believe in the regime.

UPDATE
I just remembered that chavismo introduced Bolivarian “kotex” three years ago.

Linked to by Hot Air. Thank you!

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