Following is Eamonn MacDonagh‘s post-election forecast, in the form of a Twitter string,
1.Scioli is toast. Macri will be the next President of Argentina. Massa will be the leader of the (+/- ) constitutional peronist opposition.
— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015
2.The ragtag army of intellectuals, artists + human rights NGOs (as they would all describe themselves) that has developed the legitimating
— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015
3.discourse for Kirchnerism will now split. Some will look into their hearts and discover that they never supported Néstor and Cristina,
— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015
4.not really, and that they now see the virtues of Macri and will seek sinecures, grants and jobs in and around the new administration.
— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015
5.The rest will go for broke and campaign relentlessly against Macri’s government accusing it of evildoing on a practically hitlerian scale.
— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015
6.Their views will be echoed in foreign media like the Guardian and NYT.
— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015
7.The officially recognized trade unions will suddenly start to be worried about the consequences of inflation
— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015
8.for workers’ living standards on the day Macri takes office. Macri has been underestimated by nearly everyone since he entered politics.
— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015
9.Time to stop that. However, he’ll need to need to show huge political dexterity to manage the economy
— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015
10.and defuse the innumerable ticking bombs that will be left for him by the outgoing administration.
— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015
11.On the plus side he’ll have market confidence, at least at the start, as was shown by the stock market bounce yesterday
— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015
12.His biggest challenge will be to establish as normal and unremarkable that a non-peronist president
— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015
13. leading a largely non-peronist party is governing Argentina.. The unfinished struggle to make Argentina . a normal liberal democracy
— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015
14.PS: As regards #Nisman, Macri has harvested all the possible political rewards there already by doing/saying very little, almost nothing.
— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015
15.Some judge or prosecutor may be emboldened by the change of administraton to investigate the case in a serious way but I doubt it
— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015
16.As regards the AMIA case, no change and for three reasons: a. Macri has said some bizarre things in the past about Israel
— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015
17.and his initial appointment to head the Metropolitan Police, El Fino Palacios, was up to his oxters in the initial cover up.
— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015
18.b Given the current state of US policy towards Iran even if Macri were passionately interested in extraditing the suspects
— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015
19.it’s not likely that Obama and Kerry would help him and c. There’s nothing in it for him politically,
— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015
20.quite the contrary, why stir up trouble when he’ll have plenty of other things to worry about?
— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015
