Fausta's Blog

American and Latin American Politics, Society, and Culture

October 28, 2015 By Fausta

Argentina: Eamonn’s forecast

Following is Eamonn MacDonagh‘s post-election forecast, in the form of a Twitter string,

1.Scioli is toast. Macri will be the next President of Argentina. Massa will be the leader of the (+/- ) constitutional peronist opposition.

— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015

2.The ragtag army of intellectuals, artists + human rights NGOs (as they would all describe themselves) that has developed the legitimating

— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015

3.discourse for Kirchnerism will now split. Some will look into their hearts and discover that they never supported Néstor and Cristina,

— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015

4.not really, and that they now see the virtues of Macri and will seek sinecures, grants and jobs in and around the new administration.

— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015

5.The rest will go for broke and campaign relentlessly against Macri’s government accusing it of evildoing on a practically hitlerian scale.

— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015

6.Their views will be echoed in foreign media like the Guardian and NYT.

— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015

7.The officially recognized trade unions will suddenly start to be worried about the consequences of inflation

— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015

8.for workers’ living standards on the day Macri takes office. Macri has been underestimated by nearly everyone since he entered politics.

— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015

9.Time to stop that. However, he’ll need to need to show huge political dexterity to manage the economy

— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015

10.and defuse the innumerable ticking bombs that will be left for him by the outgoing administration.

— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015

11.On the plus side he’ll have market confidence, at least at the start, as was shown by the stock market bounce yesterday

— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015

12.His biggest challenge will be to establish as normal and unremarkable that a non-peronist president

— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015

13. leading a largely non-peronist party is governing Argentina.. The unfinished struggle to make Argentina . a normal liberal democracy

— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015

14.PS: As regards #Nisman, Macri has harvested all the possible political rewards there already by doing/saying very little, almost nothing.

— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015

15.Some judge or prosecutor may be emboldened by the change of administraton to investigate the case in a serious way but I doubt it

— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015

16.As regards the AMIA case, no change and for three reasons: a. Macri has said some bizarre things in the past about Israel

— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015

17.and his initial appointment to head the Metropolitan Police, El Fino Palacios, was up to his oxters in the initial cover up.

— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015

18.b Given the current state of US policy towards Iran even if Macri were passionately interested in extraditing the suspects

— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015

19.it’s not likely that Obama and Kerry would help him and c. There’s nothing in it for him politically,

— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015

20.quite the contrary, why stir up trouble when he’ll have plenty of other things to worry about?

— Eamonn MacDonagh (@EamonnMacDonagh) October 27, 2015

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Filed Under: Argentina Tagged With: Alberto Nisman, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Eamonn MacDonagh, Fausta' blog, Mauricio Macri

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