Tras ser detenido en forma ilegal y después liberado, el estudiante de la UNAM que luego admitió que sí usa la violencia en las manifestaciones por Ayotzinapa llega a la Unidad de Quemados… y en el Cineclub de Nicasio: Quiero Matar a mi Jefe 2
Archives for December 2014
Tom Bemis looks at Breakevens for most major oil-producing countries (emphasis added)
A widely used measure of the impact of oil prices on major producers’ governments is the fiscal breakeven price. That’s “the average price at which the budget of an oil-exporting country is balanced in a given year,” according to Standard & Poor’s. Estimates of fiscal breakeven prices can vary considerably based on a variety of factors including actual budget expenditures, and differences in oil production forecasts.
In most cases, the oil price necessary to balance the budgets of major oil producing countries is above $100 a barrel in 2015, according to data from Citi Research’s Edward Morse.
Venezuela, already facing serious fiscal woes and rampant inflation, needs oil at $151 a barrel next year to balance its budget, according to the data.
Iran, which has yet to agree to curb development of nuclear weapons and heavily subsidizes gasoline for its citizens, needs oil at $131 a barrel.
And Russia, whose seizure of Crimea and continuing aggression towards Ukraine has raised tensions throughout Europe and inspired western financial sanctions, needs oil at $107 for a chance of getting its finances in order.
Venezuela’s future? ‘Barbarity and people looting’One analyst at Nomura recently estimated that Venezuela may need oil prices to hit $200 a barrel to balance its budget. (The precise figure is difficult to determine, because Venezuela doesn’t disclose as much economic data as other countries do.)
It seems as if President Maduro really believed that OPEC would cut production after he sent Ramirez to visit a few countries, including Russia, who happens not to be a member of OPEC. But as most analysts expected, OPEC did not cut production and scheduled the next meeting for next June, bringing a lot of people back to reality, including Maduro. It was only after Ramirez reportedly left the meeting “red faced”, that it sunk in that maybe Plan A was not going to work. Thus, Maduro switched to Plans B and C. Plan B is to “hope” that oil prices bounce back and plan C was to send Minister of Finance Marco Torres to Beijing to see if he can get some money there. Plan D was to name a commission to cut salaries and luxurious expenses. Yeah, sure!
I have been arguing with a bunch of friends about the probability that Torres will come back with a significant loan, which I peg to be around 0.00001, but they seem to think it is somewhat higher. You see, they actually believe that Venezuela has something to offer the Chinese, like oil or oil fields. But the reality is that Venezuela has little to offer at this time and the Chinese know it, so that Minister Torres is very likely to come back empty handed.
Following the FARC’s release of Gen. Alzate, Capt. Jorge Rodriguez and lawyer Gloria Urrego, Alzate resigned:
Colombian General Captured, Released by Rebels Resigns
Gen. Rubén Darío Alzate Had Come Under Pressure for How He Ventured Into Guerrilla Territory
General Rubén Darío Alzate said in televised remarks that he was resigning after violating security protocols by straying too far into a dangerous area without sufficient protection.
Former president, now senator Uribe is demanding that Pres. Santos explain to the country (##SantosExpliqueleAlPaís) the photo-op of Alzate with a former terrorist, which Uribe finds demeaning,
"Imágenes degradantes del gral Alzate abrazado con Pastor Alape fueron captadas y difundidas por Telesur. Santos… http://t.co/TYDdORUzT5
— Álvaro Uribe Vélez (@AlvaroUribeVel) December 1, 2014
Here’s the photo, which was taken prior to Gen. Alzate’s release, showing him with Félix Muñoz Lascarro, alias ‘Pastor Alape’, one of the FARC’s negotiators in Havana. The caption reads, “Commander Pastor Alape and General Rubén Darío Alzate. Peace will triumph.”
#SantosExplainToTheCountry Telesur’s presenting and organizing a TV show showing Gen. Alzate as the terrorist’s sidekick
#SantosExpliqueleAlPaís pregunta comunidad por presencia de Telesur organizando show d presentar a Gral Alzate como compinche del terrorista
— Álvaro Uribe Vélez (@AlvaroUribeVel) December 1, 2014
Having dissed his ex-wife and come out of his latest stint at rehab, Russell Brand is craving for attention, hence this:
Yes, that’s his Twitter icon: a full display of cluelessness replete with the “coexist” symbol necklace, carefully arranged hair, Commie-red background, and Che pose. Only a dove of peace is missing to complete the cliches.
Kevin Williamson looks at one who wants the world to know that beneath the clown makeup is the face of a Serious Man, that Russell,
Mr. Brand is fond of having himself depicted as Guevara, a figure for whom he shares the daft enthusiasm of many members of his generation. He frets that Guevara was “a bit of a homophobe,” but insists that “we need only glance at Che to know that that is what a leader should look like,” i.e., a bit like Russell Brand. Guevara was a mass murderer who shot people for amusement. The cause in which he fought was the cause of gulags and murder. There are today, at this moment, thousands of political prisoners being tortured in prisons that Guevara helped to establish, and millions foundering in the totalitarian police state he helped to found off the coast of Florida. But . . . sure, great hair.
Great hair only on photos; according to many who knew him, Che was not fond of shampooing, so Russell better not imitate the head lice.
But I wonder if, like Che, Russell wears a Rolex?
Yes, I love Thanksgiving Day. No, I don’t go shopping in stores on the weekend.
Now we have that out of the way, let’s look at the week’s stories:
Castro Helped the Devil in Argentina
Although they kept it quiet, Argentina’s dictators had a gentlemen’s agreement with Castro. Under the pact, Videla supported Cuba’s bid in 1977 to join the Executive Council of the World Health Organization, a diplomatic feather in Castro’s beret. The quid pro quo was that Havana stump among nonaligned nations to name Argentina to the United Nations prestigious Economic and Social Council. Apparently Cuba’s vote was the 18th and decisive ballot, landing Argentina the coveted UN seat.
ICYMI Beware a Leftist Landslide in Bolivia
Castro’s agents had targeted Macy’s, Gimbels, Bloomingdales, and Manhattan’s Grand Central Station with a dozen incendiary devices and 500 kilos of TNT. The holocaust was set for detonation the following week, on the day after Thanksgiving.
Worst off are those countries with populist governments that squandered the windfall from the boom. Forecasters see no let-up in the stagflation afflicting Venezuela and Argentina. Thanks to lack of investment and clumsy macroeconomic management, Brazil’s economy will barely grow this year and faces a fiscal squeeze in 2015. Yet the deceleration goes far wider. The high-flying and well-run economies of Chile, Peru and Colombia are all suffering. The growth rate this year in Chile (2%) and Peru (around 3%) is half that of 2013. Contrast that with sub-Saharan Africa, which is also a big commodity producer and where the IMF expects growth of 5.1% this year and 5.8% next.
British forensic experts work with Mexican parents to create database of disappeared
As Mexican president announces police revamp following student atrocity outrage, British-funded project aims to identify human remains buried in mass graves across violence-plagued country
Venezuela to charge opposition leader over alleged plot to kill President Maduro
Maria Corina Machado denies any wrongdoing and says the threat is an attempt to silence critics of the government
Venezuela Says 35 Prison Inmates Dead From Overdose
Pressure is building on Venezuela’s government to fully investigate a rising number of deaths at an overcrowded prison, with human-rights activists questioning authorities’ claim of a mass drug overdose by dozens of inmates who stormed an infirmary.
The week’s posts:
Venezuela: AP does Orwell so well
At Da Tech Guy Blog:
The only people with the right to object to immigration are Native Americans
New York federal judge Lewis Kaplan ruled last week that Chevron may “conduct discovery” regarding a $6.4 million contract between the government of Ecuador and MCSquared, a Brooklyn, N.Y., public-relations firm. Score another victory for the oil company over plaintiffs seeking to blame it for environmental damage in the Ecuadorean jungle.
But how would that help the country’s democracy?
No opposition member of the national assembly has access to public contracts under Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa. Requests for such information are batted away by the government-controlled legislature and ignored by the attorney general and comptroller general.
. . .
Yet a cool $4.5 million is still unaccounted for. That’s the difference between the $1.9 million in disbursements detailed in MCSquared’s September filing and the total amount paid to MCSquared according to the July filing. The government has not denied paying the full amount of the contract but will not answer Andrés Páez’s inquiry about where the rest of the money went.
Where did the $4.5 million go? Chevron may even find out.