538 Model Posits Brown as 3:1 Favorite: The forecasting model that predicted all 35 Senate races in 2008 predicts Brown will win, and not only that,
Coakley’s odds are substantially worse than they appeared to be 24 hours ago, when there were fewer credible polls to evaluate and there appeared to be some chance that her numbers were bottoming out and perhaps reversing. However, the ARG and Research 2000 polls both show clear and recent trends against her. Indeed the model, which was optimized for regular rather than special elections, may be too slow to incorporate new information and may understate the magnitude of the trend toward Brown.
Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion will be liveblogging starting at 8:30AM today.
Will this mean the end of healthcare reform?
The bigger hurdle for Democrats, however, will be the anxiety and political upheaval caused by the election. If Brown wins, it will be in large part because of high turnout from independents who oppose the health care reform bill. That’s going to make going forward with reform, already a big gamble, even riskier.
Or will the Dems resort to a big gambit, and rush the bill through before Brown is seated, if he wins?
We live in interesting times, alright.
In a lighter mode, Obama: Coakley Victorious if Brown Gets Less Than 60%
In Louisiana, the race is seen as important for the nation,
Kermit Hoffpauir, also of Baton Rouge, said he decided to make calls to help clients in his chemical process equipment business.
“The party in power’s an economy killer,” he said.
Please note there will be no podcast this morning due to a change in a business appointment.