Posts Tagged ‘Latino vote’

More #post-election info: 28% Latino poverty rate

Friday, November 16th, 2012

Latino Poverty Rate Climbs to 28%

The numbers released Wednesday

a week after the election

by the Census Bureau are part of a newly developed supplemental poverty measure. Devised a year ago, this measure provides a fuller picture of poverty that the government believes can be used to assess safety-net programs by factoring in living expenses and taxpayer-provided benefits that the official formula leaves out.

Based on the revised formula, the number of poor people exceeded the 49 million, or 16 percent of the population, who were living below the poverty line in 2010. That came as more people in the slowly improving economy picked up low-wage jobs last year but still struggled to pay living expenses. The revised poverty rate of 16.1 percent also is higher than the record 46.2 million, or 15 percent, that the government’s official estimate reported in September.

Again, after the election, we’re told that

Hispanics and Asians also saw much higher rates of poverty, 28 percent and 16.9 percent, respectively, compared with rates of 25.4 percent and 12.3 percent under the official formula.

Oh, We Forgot to Tell You …

Hispanic Straw Men

Cross-posted at Liberty Unyielding.

My friend Pete goes to the diner

Sunday, October 7th, 2012

Pete Ingemi – Da Tech Guy – and I were talking about micro-pollsters the other day, and I’m not alone in finding the sample size, em, lacking, to put it midly,

I took a look at the poll and it didn’t take long to notice some ….interestingissues to wit:

This is the sixth release of an 11-week tracking poll of Latino registered voters. Each week impreMedia and Latino Decisions will release a new rolling cross-section of 300 completed interviews with Latino registered voters across all 50 states. Battleground interviewers are combined across all six weeks and are 267 completed interviews, with Florida accounting for the largest share of battleground states.

So the battle ground figures in this poll are actually mini samples taken over six weeks while opinions might be changing. That’s bad enough but consider one more thing:

Battleground states: FL, NV, CO, AZ, OH, NH, NC, VA, IA, MO (all 7 points or smaller margin in current presidential polls)

Forget the insanity of trying to extrapolate the latino vote over fifty states based on a 300 person sample. Let’s look at the 10 battleground states 267 answers over 10 states.

Pete illustrates his point,

As I mentioned the other day, the Pew Hispanic Center reports that 23.7 million Latinos are eligible to vote in the USA (myself included).

Small sample? Huge margin of error?

Yes. Yes.

And we are to assume that is a significant enough ramdom sample?

Cross-posted in The Green Room.

Politico on the Latino vote: “Theatrics won’t woo Latinos”

Wednesday, July 20th, 2011

IF (big “if”), if there is such a thing as a “Latino vote”, which I completely doubt, Alfonso Aguilar writing at Politico says Theatrics won’t woo Latinos

Can the administration’s Latino strategy work? Judging from the response from Latinos, I don’t think so. His trip to Puerto Rico was criticized for being too short and empty of substance. The most recent Gallup Poll shows Latino support for Obama plummeting to an average of 52 percent for June, down from 74 percent at the beginning of his term.

Latinos surely remember that President George W. Bush sent two top Cabinet members to the Hill in ’07 to negotiate an immigration reform plan with the Democratic leadership, not knowing if he had the necessary votes to pass it. Though Bush failed, they recognize he showed presidential leadership in trying to find a solution to this complex problem. Why can’t Obama do the same now?

With Puerto Rican voters in Florida, the strategy most likely won’t work either. They don’t care as much about immigration as other Latino groups. But like most Americans, Latinos are frustrated with the administration’s economic policies. They see unemployment stuck at about 9 percent, with Latino unemployment considerably higher, at roughly 12 percent. It’s going to take more than a trip to Puerto Rico to get their vote.

Obama had his chance. He raised the hopes of Latinos and then didn’t deliver.

This doesn’t mean that the majority of Latinos are going to vote Republican. But it does mean that many will consider voting for the Republican candidate. If the GOP nominee gets at least 40 percent of the Latino vote — and can win states like Colorado, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico — Obama could possibly be defeated in 2012.

Is there such a thing as a “Latino vote”, when you have millions of people from two dozen countries, many languages, every social/educational/cultural background, and every ethnicity known to mankind?

Cross-posted at The Green Room.

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