The Hill has this,
Jobs forecast could help Obama — if he can sell it to the nation
Ponder that a moment. The President needs to “sell” the public on the job figures because the public just doesn’t “get” how good things are?
Economists who study the labor market said this week that they expect unemployment in 2012 to average 8.5 percent, down more than a point from the 9.6 jobless rate of today.
And the Dems took a beating because,
The White House’s failure to formulate a consistent, positive economic message is something that has frustrated Democrats, who believe a better communications strategy from the White House could have saved the party some of the House and Senate seats it lost last week.
Not that multiplying the national debt, bringing the size of government to historic highs, passing laws that are thousands of pages long while unread, and having 10% unemployment (while taking majestic trips overseas) matter; Heidi Shierholz thinks it’s that the White House failed to “formulate a consistent, positive economic message”.
James Pethokoukis read The Hill’s article, notices that it sets a very low bar, and asks, Will 8.5 percent unemployment be enough to reelect Obama?
So let’s say the unemployment rate is 8.5 percent on Election Day 2012. That is twice as high as what Americans have grown accustomed to. As recently as May 2007, it was 4.4 percent. It was also under 5.0 percent from July 1997 through August 2001. And before this recession, Americans hadn’t seen 8.5 percent unemployment since 1983. In addition, housing will still be in the tank, and budget deficits will still be in the stratosphere. Morning in America II? Good luck with that.
Ed Morrissey’s even tougher on Shierholz,
A reduction of a single percentage point in joblessness won’t move the needle for Obama. By the calculations of his economic team, Obamanomics was supposed to prevent unemployment from going above 8% in the first place. By that point, Obama will have had more than three years to improve the economic environment, and 8.5% won’t be seen by anybody as success in that effort. Not only will Obama have a difficult time justifying another four years of malaise in that set of circumstances, but Democrats in the Senate will be defending 13 more seats in the upper chamber than Republicans on the basis of that failure at the same time.
It won’t be a wind at the backs of Democrats in that environment; it will be a boot at their backsides.
Particularly if you are one of the still-unemployed.