Archive for the ‘elections’ Category

Brazil: Socialist Party candidate dies in plane crash

Thursday, August 14th, 2014

We talked about this in last night’s podcast:

Brazilian Candidate Dies in Crash
Eduardo Campos, the Brazilian Socialist Party candidate for president, was killed in the crash of a private jet, upending the October election.

A leftist who was also friendly to business and tough on crime. Mr. Campos had hoped to appeal to both progressives and fiscal conservatives, but his campaign had trouble gaining traction. A recent poll had shown him with about 8% of the likely vote—a distant third behind Ms. Rousseff and her main rival, Aécio Neves of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party.

Campos was in third place behind Dilma and Aécio, but the accident may affect the SP’s standing,

Those standings could change, however, if Mr. Campos is succeeded at the top of the ticket by his popular running mate, Marina Silva, who ran for president herself in 2010 and won about 19% of the vote.

Ms. Silva had been exploring another presidential run again this year, but when her own party, Rede Sustentabilidade, was unable to meet the requirements to get her onto the ballot, she joined Mr. Campos’s ticket as vice president.

A deeply religious, environmental activist, Ms. Silva could attract votes from both the left and right in a way that Mr. Campos couldn’t, said João Augusto de Castro Neves, Latin America director at the Eurasia Group think tank in Washington.

“She will threaten both Dilma and Aécio,” he said.

It was a horrible crash: the plane’s fall damaged seven houses:

O Globo reports that firemen have found the plane’s cabin and Campos’s wallet (link in Portuguese).

In addition to the seven killed who were aboard the plane, there were six residents injured.


Brazil: Hacking the reporters

Wednesday, August 13th, 2014

Miriam Leitão and Carlos Alberto Sardenberg, outstanding journalists who report on the many corruption scandals of the Dilma years, found out they were being hacked and smeared by someone using a computer address inside the Planalto presidential palace.

Ooopsie!

Or should I have a Captain Louis Renault moment?

I mean, “I’m shocked, shocked” that the journalists have come under attack by someone who doesn’t have enough brains to realize a computer address inside the Planalto could be located.

But I digress.

What’s interesting is the blowback; Mac Margolis:

Launching stealth attacks on critics from within the presidential palace plays well with the party faithful, but maybe less so at the voting booth. Although official probes in Brazil rarely reach the highest office, the blowback from the smear campaign suggests that Rousseff’s road to re-election will be fraught.

Brazil’s general election’s scheduled for October 5th. The Economist calls the presidential campaign “A tightly scripted telenovela.”

Video below the fold, since it starts right away,
(more…)

Brazil: Opposition now has Arminio Fraga

Tuesday, August 12th, 2014

Arminio Fraga, president of Brazil’s central bank from 1999 to 2002 under the Fernando Henrique Cardoso administration, is now back in the game:
Brazil Ex-Insider Returns to Help Oust President
With slow growth and high inflation hurting Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff’s chances of winning a second term, former central banker Arminio Fraga joins the opposition to persuade voters that Brazil needs a new economic steward.

Mr. Fraga appears to be positioning himself as something of an inflation whisperer. As president of Brazil’s central bank from 1999 to 2002 under the administration of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, he helped stabilize the currency and rein in consumer prices. Mr. Fraga supports restrained public spending, tough inflation targeting and a floating exchange rate, policies that became known in Brazil as the “economic tripod.”

He is highly critical of the Rousseff administration’s decision slow inflation by capping gasoline prices and electricity rates, moves he dismissed as “gimmicks.” He’s also alarmed that Brazil’s central bank has been intervening regularly in the currency markets to prop up Brazil’s real against the dollar, a strategy he ridicules a “populist move.”

Mr. Fraga said these are stopgap measures that already are proving unworkable and that Brazil needs to focus on long-term fundamentals like increasing private investment and balancing its books.

The fact that earlier this year Standard & Poor downgraded Brazil´s long term bonds credit rating to one notch above junk doesn’t help Dilma – but you have to remember that, even when Dilma’s the candidate, Lula is the man to beat.

Colombia: The view from Venezuela

Tuesday, June 17th, 2014

Daniel of Venezuela News and Views, on Santos’s reelection win in Colombia:

What the Castros are getting today with a weakened Santos that owes his seat now to minority leftists in Bogota, is neutrality on Venezuela troubles. We can be almost certain that the Santos second term will not see visits of opposition leaders at Casa de Nariño. Santos second term will never confront UNASUR, and even less about Venezuela. In short, prolonging Havana negotiations between Santos and FARC for a year or two is enough for Colombia to leave alone Maduro until he can exterminate Venezuelan opposition, including massive electoral fraud next year. Then, with chavismo unmovable once and for all, it will always be time to turn the gaze toward taking over Colombia, helped by a Correa in Ecuador who know has taken the open dictatorship road with his own plans for eternal reelection. Well, that is the idea anyway.

UPDATE:
Linked to by NotiDia. Thank you!

Colombia: Winning an election the old-fashioned way?

Monday, June 16th, 2014

Pres. Juan Manuel Santos won re-election yesterday, and many are displeased, but the most vocal is former president and now senator Álvaro Uribe, who accuses Santos of electoral fraud, buying votes, and allowing the FARC to intimidate voters.

In his statement yesterday, Uribe charged Santos of “the biggest corruption in history, in the name of peace”, by

  • handing out money to legislators to buy votes,
  • offering government money to mayors and governors to make them illegally participate in the Santos campaign,
  • buying votes
  • violating the law
  • using State funds to publicize the Santos campaign
  • failing to counter threats of massacre against Zuluaga voters from terrorist groups such as FARC and criminal gangs
  • failing to counter violent pressure from terrorist groups so voters would vote for Santos

Here’s his speech (in Spanish)

“Santos prevaricated by not rejecting armed terrorists’ support who forced [people] to vote for him and threatened to massacre Zuluaga’s supporters”

Many Colombians are concerned that under a peace deal many thousands of rebels will form drug-trafficking gangs.

Colombia: The #WorldCup team won; will Santos? UPDATED

Sunday, June 15th, 2014

UPDATE:

Earlier today,

Today’s Colombia’s run-off election.

2014 World Cup: Colombia beats Greece 3-0 in Group C opener.

Pres. Santos thinks it’ll get him another term:
Colombian Leader Sets Goal: Win Soccer Match, Then Win Presidency
President Juan Manuel Santos, Whose Job Is at Stake in a Sunday Election, Hopes for a Political Assist from His World Cup Team.
I don’t quite get the logic, but apparently it has to do with the thought that larger turnout would favor Santos,

Political strategists say a Colombian victor [sic] against Greece on Saturday in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, could generate a broad feel-good moment for Colombia, drive higher voter turnout the next day and tip the scales in Mr. Santos’s favor over his rival, Óscar Iván Zuluaga.

That’s assuming that

  1. The fans are not hungover, and they’ll want to go out and vote, and 
  2. The fans are not staying home or at the sports bar or sports club watching whatever other game may be on:
  3. Ricardo Rodríguez, a soccer-loving doorman from Bogotá, is one fan who plans to forgo voting Sunday. “It’s a thousand times better to see soccer than to go out to vote,” he said.

I don’t know enough of Colombian political thinking to guess whether the average Joe conflates the soccer team with “team Santos”, if at all.

We’ll find out later this evening.


Colombia: Zuluaga change of heart?

Friday, May 30th, 2014

In an apparent change of heart, Colombian presidential runner-up Oscar Iván Zuluaga declared that he would not suspend the peace negotiations with the FARC taking place in Havana.

He did, however, assert that “we shall continue our fundamental demand, the cease of all criminal action against Colombians.”

Zuluaga

did not say how long he would give the FARC to declare a ceasefire, a condition it has rejected until now, but said he softened his stance at the request of Conservative Party leader Marta Lucia Ramirez in exchange for her support in the run-off vote campaign.

Call me a cynic, but this looks to me like a statement purely for local consumption, designed to diffuse Santos’s false choice of it’s-Santos-or-war, redacted after internal polls may have shown that it would favor his election on the June 15th runoff.

Colombia: What the FARC really want

Thursday, May 29th, 2014

faustaI’m posting at Da Tech Guy Blog on the Colombian election and the FARC negotiations:
Colombia: What the FARC really want

Silvio Canto and I talked on this and other subjects in last night’s podcast.

Venezuela: Wives of jailed mayors win

Tuesday, May 27th, 2014

Patricia Gutierrez in San Cristobal

Rosa Brandonisio in San Diego

Wives of Jailed Venezuela Opposition Mayors Dominate Vote. The wives of Daniel Ceballos and Vicencio (Enzo) Scarano won by landslides in San Cristobal and San Diego, yet

The result is little more than a symbolic victory for Mr. Maduro’s detractors as both sides remain in a tenuous standoff after more than three months of off-and-on demonstrations that have cost at least 42 lives. Protests began by addressing rampant crime before taking on corruption as well as economic woes like high inflation and frequent shortages of basic goods.

Sunday’s vote is unlikely to change the political landscape. Mr. Maduro, the successor of late leftist firebrand Hugo Chávez, has emerged mostly unshaken with the help of soldiers to put down the unrest, while the opposition is split over its next step as the protest movement shows signs of fatigue.

Bloggers differ on this conclusion: Alberto de la Cruz sees it as Cuba’s puppet dictatorship in Venezuela takes major hit in mayoral elections.

Daniel Duquenal explains,

All the efforts of the regime to brow beat these cities, to divide opposition, to promote abstention have failed and it looks like the gains were made more at the expense of chavismo than possible abstention. there is no way around, this is a major set back for the regime, a major confirmation that the opposition is now an electoral majority. Days of reflection for all ahead. Chavismo strategy is a dead end of violence and repression. The MUD cannot possibly win if it does not find a more durable way to tie protest and elections and clear message as it was, miraculously, the case today. Yes, I wrote miraculously.

Juan Cristobal Nagel has more on Polls vs. chavismo vs. guarimbas vs. naysayers and sees it as

a heavy defeat for chavismo. It shows that the government continues losing support, unable to muster its forces even when faced with political neophytes and an opposition that is both financially and physically exhausted. If they were counting on political infighting within the opposition to keep their voters home, they were mistaken.

I hope the opposition is able in future elections to again circumvent the chavista intervention in election results.

Highly-connected chavistas continue to loot the oil money. Alek Boyd is on the trail of Derwick Associates:

The Derwick boys aren’t in the wealth-creation league of Onassis-type of entrepreneurs: they’re simply laundering proceeds from ill gotten contracts their school chums got for them thanks to chavismo’s rampant corruption and nepotism.

Alek also has an update on Raúl Gorrín

The City of Miami recently declared Raul Gorrin -Boligarch owner of TV channel Globovision- persona non grata, after reports have surfaced about his property purchases in Cocoplum. U.S. authorities would do well in checking backgrounds of property owners at Jade Ocean..

Indeed.

Colombia: Who will be the next president?

Sunday, May 25th, 2014

Today’s the first round of the Colombian presidential election.

I say the first round because it’s unlikely that current-president Santos will get a large enough majority to avoid a second round.

Uribista Óscar Iván Zuluaga was making headway until the video scandal popped up:
Colombian Presidential Candidate Stumbles Over Campaign Allegations
Conservative Óscar Iván Zuluaga’s Surge in Pre-Vote Polls Hurt by Flap Over Videotapes

A 55-year-old former finance minister who has centered his campaign on sharply criticizing Mr. Santos’ peace talks with Marxist rebels, Mr. Zuluaga became entangled in the scandal after one of his campaign workers was arrested on May 6 for allegedly spying on Mr. Santos’s emails and those of guerrilla commanders participating in negotiations taking place in Havana, Cuba, with the Colombian government.

Eighteen days, two viral videos and numerous denials later, Mr. Zuluaga just can’t shake off accusations he was directly involved in what prosecutors here call a complex case of computer hacking.

Zuluaga denies involvement with the spying that the Santos campaign accused him of orchestrating.

Santos, however, had a scandal, too,

another scandal took off on May 8, when Mr. Zuluaga’s most powerful supporter, former President Álvaro Uribe, alleged $2 million that may have been tainted by drug trafficking was funneled into Mr. Santos’ 2010 presidential campaign. The Santos administration denied accepting funds from drug traffickers, and prosecutors said Mr. Uribe didn’t presented evidence.

Al-Jazeera has Five reasons to care about Colombia’s polls
Arms dealers, coffee drinkers and potential holidaymakers, take note.

5) Colombia is now the closest Western ally in South America, bucking the left’s pink tide

There’s enough dissatisfaction that Colombia Politics blog advises, If no one deserves your vote, vote “en blanco”. The Miami Herald speculates, Analysts say it’s far from clear how badly Zuluaga will be hurt by the scandal, but some have suggested it may sap enough votes to put another candidate into the second round against Santos.The Brazilian psychic predicts Zuluaga will be the next president:

As Drudge says, developing . . .