Fausta's Blog

Now that Hugo Chávez doesn’t need to be sworn in to start his new six-year term, there’s this:
In Chavez’s absence, U.S. works to open communication with Venezuela

With cancer-stricken President Hugo Chavez battling for his life, the Obama administration has embarked on a discreet but concerted weeks-long diplomatic initiative to open channels of communication with his sharply anti-American government.

The effort to break through a years-old deep freeze with one of the world’s top oil suppliers comes as Venezuela plunged deeper into an institutional crisis Wednesday over Chavez’s long absence since undergoing surgery Dec. 11 in Cuba.

But American officials have been preparing for a post-Chavez scenario, one in which they can engage Caracas on a variety of concerns the State Department has had about the Venezuelan government’s policies. They include the close alliance Venezuela has built with Iran, extensive narco-­trafficking through Venezuelan territory and prickly economic issues important to U.S. companies, such as their inability to repatriate earnings from here because of currency controls.

The premise is that Vice President Nicolas Maduro is “seen as a negotiator.”

How so?

Maduro is considered an ideologue close to Cuba’s Communist leadership and in lock step with Chavez’s long-standing policy of distancing Venezuela from the United States, which had been a close ally until his presidency began in 1999. As foreign minister, a position he still holds, Maduro has led Chavez’s campaign to forge closer ties with U.S. adversaries such as Iran.
…
On a practical level, the Venezuelan government stopped cooperating with Washington’s counter-drug operations and for years was accused of assisting guerrillas in neighboring Colombia, the closest U.S. ally in the region. Under Maduro’s watch as foreign minister, Venezuela became friendlier with pariah states such as Syria, Libya and Belarus.

That’s some negotiating, for a “pragmatist“,

What does “pragmatist” mean in this context? The functional definition is: those with whom the Obama administration wishes to “engage.” The substantive definition is: an anti-American who is willing to play the likes of Barack Obama, John Kerry, and Nancy Pelosi for suckers as long as no action is required to do so.

Then there’s the question of how long would Maduro stay in power, considering Diosdado Cabello’s position as head of the National Assembly.

What can possibly go wrong?

Cross-posted at Liberty Unyielding.

UPDATE
Jesus & Hugo:

Doing a Captain Louis Renault at the news, I am shocked, shocked!

[UPDATE: Venezuela's Supreme Court said President Hugo Chávez doesn't need to be sworn in to start his new six-year term.

Ms. Morales said there was no reason to declare the charismatic leader legally "incapacitated" and that ministers and the vice president could continue in their roles without disruption after Thursday, the Jan. 10 date specified by the constitution as the start of any new presidential term.

]Venezuela court: Chavez swearing-in can be delayed

Venezuela’s Supreme Court president said Wednesday that the upcoming inauguration of ailing President Hugo Chavez can legally be postponed.

Supreme Court President Luisa Estella Morales made the statement amid a heated debate between the government and opposition over whether the constitution requires the cancer-stricken leader to be sworn in for a new term on Thursday. The congress voted to delay the ceremony on Tuesday.

Morales announced her stance after the country’s opposition coalition said it would ask the court for an opinion on the National Assembly’s decision to postpone Chavez’s inauguration for a new term.

Why didn’t they decide this a week ago?

This is what the Constitution says,

Article 231: The president-elect shall take office on 10 January… by taking an oath before the National Assembly. If for any reason, (they) cannot be sworn in before the National Assembly, they shall take the oath of office before the Supreme Court.

Article 233: When an elected president becomes absolutely absent prior to inauguration, a new election… shall be held within 30 days… Pending (this), the president of the National Assembly will assume responsibility for the presidency of the Republic.

Article 234: When the president is temporarily unable to serve, they shall be replaced by the… vice-president for a period of up to 90 days, which may be extended by resolution of the National Assembly for an additional 90 days.

The opposition is outraged; for now Chavez is President For Life, whether in his mortal state or the hereafter remains to be ascertained. You may even have an eternal Weekend at Chavez.

The TSJ [Tribunal Supremo de Justicia's] ruling is simple: there is no absence of Chavez temporal [sic] or absolute. Maduro remains on top, along with the Cubans, but don’t write off Cabello,

The ones that prevailed are those who wish a continued link to Cuba, a continued colonial imposition from the Castros. Only Maduro was reliable enough for that because his lackluster character would have forced him to depend too much on Cubans and the radical chavismo to stay in office. On the other hand Cabello can count on the military (or at least a large faction of them) and the bolibourgoise who are sensing that a little bit of economic freedom and less money sent to the Cuban vampire would actually improve their lot. A president Cabello could afford to send Cubans home and gain in the process (1).

In other words, the TSJ ruling of today means for all practical purposes that Maduro has scored his second point against Cabello, the first one being when Chavez designated him his heir last December (2). But fear not, it is not over for Cabello, this is kind of a major league contest, kind of best of 13…… With a “sudden death” at any time.

Undeniably, it’s a Supremely Convenient Interpretation in Caracastan, the capital of Cubazuela.

With Hugo Chavez completely out of the public eye for nearly a month, January 10 coming up, and factional infighting among Chavistas, will there be a constitutional coup?

Last Friday Hugo’s heir apparent, Nicolas Maduro, dismissed the Venezuelan Constitution as a formality.

The WSJ explains:

Speculation is growing that the president’s illness, the specific details of which are being kept secret by the government, will force him from power after 14 years, despite having been re-elected in October. Mr. Chavez is set to be inaugurated into his next term Jan. 10—the date specified by the constitution.

But in a televised interview Friday night, Mr. Maduro dubbed the swearing in ceremony as just a “formality” and said that it could be postponed for the re-elected Mr. Chavez. Mr. Maduro’s comments are likely to anger opposition politicians who have said that the president’s inability to appear at the inauguration should indicate that he is too sick to rule and trigger new elections, which the constitution calls for if the head of state dies or is incapacitated.

Daniel Duquenal writes about the interview,

Today, in a normal country where the elected president is more dead than alive the powers in place would have started preparing for a transition, consulted around, etc..  Here in Venezuela the opposition is accused of all evils, is told that never shall chavismo speak to them, while we are told the constitutional provisions are optional, mere formalities.

In short, we are told that chavismo is starting a coup d’état. Or rather, is deepening the coup d’etat that started in Funerary 1999 when Chavez called for an illegal constituent assembly. Or rather, is a culmination of sorts of the coup of February 1992 when again, since 1958, it was thought OK that a small group of people decide what does goes on in Venezuela according to their personal will and interests. See, on this regard today offers no surprise for those watching Venezuela’s involution since 1992. It is just more crass, more open, more frontal, more f**k you.

I am not going into details because I did not watch the proceedings and I have just been checking late tonight what happened this Saturday in Caracas when Diosdado Cabello was sworn in president of the National Assembly for the 2013 session. By the way, should I go back to name it Nazional Assembly since the opposition is shut almost as effectively than it was in the previous monochromatic 2005-2010 assembly? suffice to say that there was a lot of hot air, a lot of insults, a lot of posturing and the opposition wisely decided to be heard but keeping it rather low profile compared to the zealous overexertion of chavismo in a deliberate ploy to provoke the opposition. Again, what else is new?

Yesterday I wrote that the reelection of Cabello meant that we would not likely have elections before March at the earliest, maybe as late as June or July. Or that actually there was an off chance that Chavez could survive and come back even on a wheel chair. And that it also meant that chavismo was getting ready to commit some constitutional violation as there is no indication whatsoever that Chavez will be in Caracas on January 10 (if he were to show up, which in an odd way would not totally surprising for me, it would confirm that chavismo is all about smoke and mirrors since they are unable to rule and solve people’s problems. But I digress).

Thus today degradation at the Assembly means that indeed chavismo has started to violate the Constitution and that the rule of law was never intended in the 1999 constitutional draft. How they are going to do that to make it look “legal” is something that to tell you the truth I care not to speculate on, sticking to my decision as of October 7 to become more of a bystander cum Cassandra. At any rate, newspaper headlines will be informing us within days of the modality.

However there is one thing that I can tell you for sure already: today’s disgraceful display is the classical, poster boy case of the insecure bully in the school yard. That is, the bully and its gang think that by screaming louder than all they may get to avoid challenge or sanctions.

The Devil’s Excrement looks at how Chavismo Seems To Be Taking The Wrong And Unconstitutional Path In Venezuela:

And while you could argue legally that Chávez can delay being sworn in, can be sworn by the Supreme Court, can be sworn in in Cuba, can be declared temporary unable to assume the Presidency, all of which are questionable from a legal point of view: About the only thing you can not possibly argue legally or in any other way, is that Nicolás Maduro can continue to be Vice-President on January 10th, but that seems to be what he is saying and how they plan to play it.

But this would be unconstitutional, because Maduro is named and removed by the President. There is no way to interpret or suggest that his nomination, or that of the Cabinet for that matter, can be extended beyond Jan. 10th. On Jan. 10th. a new Constitutional period begins, there is a reset. Reelection is not the continuation of a mandate, it is a new mandate and in Venezuela’s Constitution it has a new date for its beginning. Thus, for Nicolás Maduro to continue being Vice-President after Jan. 10th. unless Hugo Chávez is sworn in, would be absolutely illegal and a break in Venezuela’s Constitutional order. A coup, no matter how yo[u] try to spin it. A very clear one at that.

So far, the Cuban regime is orchestrating the Venezuelan transition; will the people of Venezuela let them get away with it?

UPDATE:
Death of Hugo Chavez could set off shock waves across region
The likelihood that Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez is close to death will pitch rivals against one another in a battle for power and oil riches, and trigger political shock waves across the region.

Venezuela After Chávez
Regardless of whether the president makes it to his inauguration, the angling to replace him has begun.

Linked by Maggie’s Notebook. Thank you!

The power struggles in Venezuela are on, and Raul Castro and his cronies are stepping in:

Today’s Nuevo Herald reports that Cuba’s Communist regime is behind Venezuela’s transition. Under their plan, National Assembly president Diosdado Cabello would be interim president until a new election is called, with Nicolas Maduro, the current VP, as presidential candidate. Cabello will continue as National Assembly president, but with additional powers and influence. (You can read the whole thing here (in Spanish). La Patilla has more.)

At the same time, the Finance and Economics minister, Jorge Giordani, has been asked to stay, and to negotiate a grace period with China on debt payment. The objective is to issue more bonds, increase liquidity and bankroll more misiones for a year. Venezuela has been borrowing at credit card rates for quite a while.

Of course, Cuba would continue to get those Venezuelan oil shipments. One can’t help but wonder how far would 105,000 barrels of oil a day at full market value would go towards meeting Venezuela’s debt with China.

As readers of this blog well know, Venezuela is propping the Cuban Communist regime,

Raul Castro and his cronies aim to create in Venezuela “a politburo of sorts, a council that operates in consensus and will guarantee Chavismo’s stability as it unites likely heirs and rivals.”

By doing this, Raul is also perpetuating his iron grip on Cuba. Last June the Wall Street Journal pointed out,

Few analysts think a departure of Mr. Chávez would lead to political revolt in Havana that would threaten the Castros’ regime. But it might force Cuba to accelerate free-market reforms. The crisis of the 1990s forced Cuba to adopt limited free-market reforms to survive, including the first licenses for private restaurants. When times got better under Mr. Chávez, Fidel Castro rolled back the reforms.

“If Chávez were to kick the bucket, then the impetus toward reform would probably return because there wouldn’t be any other alternative,” said Arch Ritter, an economist specializing in Cuba at Carleton University in Ottawa.

Additionally, according to at least one analyst, Control of the Venezuelan government implies control of the largest natural gas reserves in Latin America and the largest deposit of oil in the world.

Venezuela’s neighbor, Brazil, is watching the action, and Dilma Rousseff has appealed for Venezuelans to follow their constitution. As you may recall, Venezuela joined Mercosur at a summit headed by Rousseff but has yet to adopt its tariffs and rules.

For now, my friend M. put it well, “the Castros have taken control [of Venezuela] without firing a shot!”

What about Chavez’s health, you ask? I don’t expect anything other than rumors and leaks until January 10. Venezuelan blogger Daniel expects Epiphany on January 5 (tomorrow).

RELATED,
Chavez Will Leave Behind An Economic Crisis of Historic Proportions

Post re-edited to correct code.

UPDATE,
Richard Fernandez looks at Venezuela.

Cross-posted at Liberty Unyielding.

Monica Showalter wrote today’s Investor’s Business Daily op-ed: Venezuela’s Dictatorship Built On A 47% Dependency Formula

Chavez is entering his fourth term — tired, cancer-stricken, in power 14 years, and vowing to accelerate his socialism even more.
And Venezuelans may never be able to get rid of him, short of death, or maybe a Pinochet-like military takeover followed by free-market reform, if they are lucky.
They can’t win against, in Chavez’s case, raising government spending 23% — on everything from hiring bureaucrats to promises of new homes, TVs and even washer-dryers.
With a system like this, with the vast majority of the population dependent on government for all their needs — and not called on to make anything of themselves — the culture of dependency and the culture of a dictator form an unbreakable bond.
That’s a lesson for America — the Chavez lesson.

Brett Stephens in the Wall Street Journal agrees: Hugo Chávez and the 47%
Venezuela’s election was a statement of national character—as America’s will be.

Now the conventional wisdom is that the country’s future depends mainly on Mr. Chávez’s health and the price of oil. Yet Venezuelans will remain what they’ve become regardless of what happens on either count. Democracy means the right not to be pitied for the consequences of your political choices. And whatever else might be coming to them in the next phase of their Bolivarian Revolution, Venezuela has made its choice.

So it goes with the rest of the democratic world, too. Egypt has chosen to put religious rectitude ahead of individual liberty. The French seem to want economic “justice” more than they do economic growth. Russia remains infatuated with its strongman, albeit with greater reservations than before. The Greeks are for anyone who will keep them living on credit.

And Americans? Next month’s election is being presented as a choice of where we want to go. But the real question is what kind of people we want to be. No, Mr. Obama is not Mr. Chávez, we aren’t yet a nation of moochers—and we have a 22nd Amendment to term-limit our presidents. But the salient point is that what happened Sunday in Venezuela was a statement of national character. What happens on Nov. 6 will be one as well.

Today’s WSJ editorial: The Misery of Venezuela
Hugo Chávez and the ruin in a nation.

he continues to serve as a lesson that democracy can be hijacked more easily than many Americans choose to admit.

Mary O’Grady: Chavismo Wins, Venezuela Loses
Control of the media and the voting polls, plus some old-fashioned fear, have won Hugo Chávez six more years.

How did Mr. Chávez pull it off? For starters he controls the voter rolls, which have never been independently audited. Even the National Electoral Council admits that the list of eligible voters is a mess. A page on its website listing “voters between 111 and 129 years of age” contains at least 10,000 names.

Of course, Jimmy Carter, who considers Venezuela’s electoral system “the best in the world“, would probably thank the imported Cuban “doctors” for the Venezuelans’ outstanding longevity. Jimmy is living proof that the path from former president to charlatan is an easy one.

But I digress.

Mary has more on Democracy, Chávez-Style

NBC: Chavez Reelection ‘An Emotional Moment in History’ for Supporters, while AP Calls Chavez Reelection in Venezuela Result of ‘Masterful Political Touch’.

Venezuelan bloggers John Manuel Silva and Daniel Duquenal are disheartened, while Miguel Octavio’s Looking At The Numbers From Yesterday’s Presidential Election.

The WaPo’s Juan Forero writes that Venezuelan opposition candidate Capriles may still pose future threat to Chavez

Dallas News editorial: Venezuela’s sad electoral statement

At Drudge,

Chávez vows to keep ‘socialist path’…

U.S. Congratulates Venezuela…

In all, The ‘Cubanization’ of Venezuela is now complete.

Tonight I’ll be in Silvio Canto’s podcast at 6PM Eastern.

UPDATE,
Mitt Romney’s FOREIGN POLICY ADDRESS TO THE VIRGINIA MILITARY INSTITUTE

There is a longing for American leadership in the Middle East—and it is not unique to that region. It is broadly felt by America’s friends and allies in other parts of the world as well— in Europe, where Putin’s Russia casts a long shadow over young democracies, and where our oldest allies have been told we are “pivoting” away from them … in Asia and across the Pacific, where China’s recent assertiveness is sending chills through the region … and here in our own hemisphere, where our neighbors in Latin America want to resist the failed ideology of Hugo Chavez and the Castro brothers and deepen ties with the United States on trade, energy, and security. But in all of these places, just as in the Middle East, the question is asked: “Where does America stand?”

After the Brazilian government news agency went out on a limb telling the world that Hugo Chavez was heading to Sao Paolo for chemotherapy,

now Hugo says that he’ll go to Cuba instead. I guess he can’t be away from the puppet master,
Chavez Chooses Cuba for Chemotherapy

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said he’ll return to Cuba today to receive chemotherapy, ending rumors he was considering Brazil as an alternative venue for cancer treatment.
“I’m going to begin the second stage of this slow and complex process of recuperation,” Chavez, 56, said yesterday on state television. “The second stage will start with chemotherapy that has already been planned in scientific detail.”

He should be on his way right now,

Congress voted unanimously today to approve Chavez’s plan to depart for Cuba at 3:30 pm New York time.

That’s the Venezuelan Congress, who had to approve Chavez’s remaining in power while being abroad for extended periods of time.

Clearly, Cuba’s advantage over Brazil is total news blackout,

“In Cuba, he has the security that nobody will ever know exactly what he has,” said the former official, who added said that he had been told by a senior Spanish diplomat that two Spanish doctors will be attending Mr. Chávez in Havana.

Pajamas Media posts the video of the announcement, where he purportedly quotes Nietzsche, adding also that he had a “baseball-size tumor” operated on,

Considering that the announcement from Brazil had to have been in the works for a while, and that Paraguayan president Fernando Lugo has traveled to Brazil for his own cancer treatment, Fidel may be the one calling the shots (emphasis added),

It is unclear what tipped the decision. From a technical point of view Chavez would be better off in Brazil, Venezuela or a country like Canada, the quality and size of cancer treatments in these three countries is considered to be much more advanced than that of Cuba, even if in Cuba, he could be taken care off by doctors of other nationalities. It is likely that in the end ideology tipped the decision Cuba’s way. I am sure that Fidel Castro and Chavez’ brother Adan put a lot of pressure on the Cuban choice. An isolated Chavez in Havana is much more under control than one in Sao Paulo in a private hospital. Those that have the most to lose, will now control the day to day life of the Venezuelan President and, indirectly, over the country.

Additionally, there’s the propaganda factor,

Analysts said Mr. Chávez may have decided to go to Cuba for treatment for political reasons more than medical ones. Seeking medical treatment at a private hospital in São Paulo could offend Mr. Chávez’s Cuban allies, Fidel and Raúl Castro, who have long touted their hospitals as a socialist success story.

While Mr. Chávez often lauds Cuban doctors, switching from Cuban to Brazilian care would have suggested the Cubans aren’t capable of world-class care.

Chavez is touting Cuba’s medical reputation at his own country’s expense,

Still, the fact that Mr. Chávez is leaving Venezuela to continue his treatment suggests that hospitals in Venezuela weren’t considered a serious option. That, analysts said, underscores the turmoil in both the public and private medical sectors during the Chávez years—and a deep animosity between Mr. Chávez and the country’s highly educated doctors.

A parallel network in Venezuela of free primary-care clinics, called Barrio Adentro, staffed by Cuban doctors, has provided quicker access to millions of poor. At the same time, it has pulled much-needed resources from the mainstream hospital system, says José Félix Oletta, a Venezuelan health minister under a previous administration.

Deteriorating working conditions coupled with notoriously low pay has driven Venezuelan doctors to jobs overseas, he said. “Venezuela medical professionals who are well-qualified are receiving very little money compared to other countries,” he added.

Despite the brain drain, top Venezuelan doctors say Mr. Chávez would get excellent treatment in Venezuela for all but the rarest sort of tumors. Although Mr. Chávez has attacked private doctors during his term in office, calling them mercenaries, his animosity toward them wouldn’t affect his treatment, doctors insist. “We are physicians,” said one prominent doctor.

While you can rest assured that the Castros will ensure that their pupil gets the best medical care Venezuelan oil money can provide, it would be ironic that Chavez’s undoing comes as a consequence of this decision.

UPDATE,
Linked by Cynical Synapse. Thanks!

Chavez’s cancer highlights close partnership with Castro

The outsize role that Castro has played in Chavez’s ordeal with cancer has brought into sharp relief not only the personal, even paternal nature of their relationship, but also how vital Chavez’s health is to Cuba’s archaic communist system.

The links the two leaders have forged are based on heartfelt kinship, Chavez’s government says. But the Cubans also have a lot riding on Chavez, who on Wednesday announced that he may undergo chemotherapy or radiation treatments. Since taking office in 1999, Chavez has shipped tens of billions of dollars in subsidized oil to the island.

The Cubazuela project is well under way,

Here in Venezuela, some of the trappings of Cuba’s system are clearly evident: a powerful state propaganda apparatus; the state seizure of companies; the spread of fervent, pro-government neighborhood groups; and the use of the military slogan “Fatherland, socialism or death!”

But in spite of the revolutionary partnership, Venezuela clearly plays the more important role. With huge oil reserves, it replaced the benefactor to Cuba that was lost with the Soviet Union’s breakup two decades ago. The 100,000 barrels of oil Cuba receives each day literally keep the lights on, particularly vital now as the Cuban government tinkers with economic liberalization measures to stay afloat.

Chavez is financing the Cuban dictatorship, while being Fidel’s pupil. Fidel is counting the dollar signs

“So if, let’s just say the Venezuelan subsidy ended for whatever reason, Cuba would have a pretty short window — probably weeks, no more than a month or two — to make some very, very severe adjustments,” said Brian Latell, a former CIA analyst and the author of “After Fidel: The Inside Story of Castro’s Regime and Cuba’s Next Leader.”

Certainly the Cuban Communist regime is aware that there will be no continuing support of that magnitude once Chavez is out of office.

While the US media is mostly ignoring Chavez’s condition, its conclusion will have intense repercussions in the political landscape of Latin America. They will first be felt in Cuba.

Chavez returns to Venezuela from Cuba; he must have looked awful enough that even after landing at 2AM away from the crowds that would congregate during daytime, it took 5 hours for state TV to edit the video:

President Hugo Chavez made a surprise return to Venezuela from Cuba before dawn Monday, saying he is feeling better as he recovers from surgery that removed a cancerous tumor.
State television showed the video of Chavez arriving about 2 a.m. local time (2:30 EDT; 0630 GMT). The station didn’t air the video until a little after five hours later.

He is expected to address the people from the presidential residence of Miraflores this afternoon. Local media say he will not attend the bicentennial celebrations tomorrow.

He’s also expected to name Nicolas Maduro as his vice-president. I do not know what the Venezuelan Constitution has to say on replacing the vice president, but rest assured that the internal power struggle in Chavismo is going on, as Chavez is expected to name an heir apparent.

Now that Hugo Chavez has come out of the oncologic closet and publicly admitted he has cancer while his army insists he’s still in charge, rumors are flying fast and furious.

The guy who’s been hitting home runs so far is El Universal’s Nelson Bocaranda Sardi. Here’s a list,

• Chavez is staying at Casa Protocolar #9, El Laguito, Havana, which was assigned to him 10 years ago
• His urinary catheter was removed last week but he still has the stomach catheter
• His spirits are very low, which shows on the video
• Upon returning to Caracas, Chavez will be admitted to the Military Hospital.  A room with hospital equipment has also been prepared at the home of the Defense Minister, and at Isla Margarita (where the cancelled summit was to take place)
• Fidel Castro has become Hugo Chavez’s spokesman. Castro spoke to Lula and Uruguayan president Pepe Mujica on Monday to cancel the scheduled summit.
• Bocaranda stated on June 30 that Chavez was going to address the Venezuelan people on having to cancel his appearances at the summit and the bicentennial.  Chavez did exactly that on the evening of June 30.
• Hugo Chavez’s mother and his brother Adan wanted Hugo to name Adan as vice-president “in order to continue the revolution”.  Hugo did not agree, and also chastised Adan when the latter said that the people should take to arms.

Chávez’ supporters ask: How can our superman be ill?
To his supporters, Hugo Chávez is far more than just a president.

To his supporters, Chávez is a larger than life figure, someone whose defiance of the US and preaching of social justice has transformed Venezuelan society. But his socialist revolution has been built around his popularity and personality, and there is no one on the horizon who could take his place, which could mean another radical political shift for Venezuela if his illness proves serious.

“For Chavistas it is very tough to accept that their supreme leader is no longer the strongman,” suggests Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue. “His human frailties have been exposed. For his avid followers there is no one else, only Chávez.”

The cult of personality lives on.

Update, After I prepared this post, I came across this article,
Simon Romero of the NYTimes reports that vice president Elías Jaua declared that Hugo Chavez

could legally keep governing Venezuela from his seclusion in Cuba for as long as six months if necessary…
…
Mr. Jaua emphasized that he fully expected Mr. Chávez to return to Venezuela within 180 days. In his remarks, made in an interview with a Colombian radio station, he made it clear that he and other top officials in Mr. Chávez’s government were relying on an interpretation of the Constitution that would allow the president to exercise his duties as head of state from abroad for a three month period, which could then be extended for another three months.

“We’re going to have a victory for the life of President Hugo Chávez,” said Mr. Jaua, who directed land expropriations before Mr. Chávez named him vice president.

This is a very interesting statement in many ways:
First of all, the medical condition must be extremely serious to impede travel right now. Venezuela has good doctors and medical facilities, and Chavez could also have doctors from anywhere in the world come to attend him in Venezuela.

The course of treatment must be very aggressive, very complicated, and very debilitating that Chavez would not be able to take a three-hour nonstop flight from Havana to Caracas inside of a six month period.
OR,
The internal power struggles going on right now which started during this currently three-week-long absence must be fierce enough that Chavez feels that he can not trust his closest staff and associates. Would he trust them with his life? Or would he rather stay in Cuba, where, once he survives whatever it is he’s being treated for (cancer, complications from surgery, metastasis), he can leave and return to Venezuela and return back to power?

Make no mistake, he is losing his stranglehold on the Venezuelan people the longer he stays away. The question is, what risk is he willing to take?

UPDATE,
Linked by the Tatler. Thanks!

While doctors in Venezuela are on general strike, Hugo Chavez remains in Cuba recovering allegedly from surgery performed two weeks ago.

Chavez was scheduled to host a summit of Latin America at Margarita Island on July 5 and 6. Now Venezuela postpones summit due to Chavez’s health

Chavez had been expected to host the summit on the 200th anniversary of Venezuela’s declaration of independence from Spain. He promoted it as an event to move ahead with the development of a 32-nation regional bloc, the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, that excludes the United States and Canada.

The Venezuelan Foreign Ministry said it will work with other countries to schedule a new date for the summit in Venezuela later in the year. It remained unclear how soon Chavez might be able to return home.
…
Uruguayan President Jose Mujica, a Chavez ally, said before the announcement of the summit cancellation that he expected the Venezuelan leader to be home in time for the country’s independence anniversary July 5.

We shall soon find out

The summit, set for July 6-7 on Margarita Island, was to have followed a massive state celebration still scheduled for Tuesday to mark the nation’s 1811 independence. It is not known whether Chavez will return by Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Venezuelan [sic], Like Castro, Has Brother at the Ready.

They don’t call it Cubazuela for nothing.

Prior The Invisible Hugo posts.