Fausta’s Blog

I was at tango when the results came in: Scott Brown won the Senate seat formerly occupied by Ted Kennedy, the day before the 1-year anniversary of Obama’s inauguration,
Democrats seek back footing after epic Mass. loss

Republicans are rejoicing and Democrats reeling in the wake of Scott Brown’s stunning victory over Martha Coakley in a special Massachusetts Senate election that Brown insists was not simply a referendum on President Barack Obama.

Still, Obama grimly faced a need to both regroup and recoup losses on Wednesday, the anniversary of his inauguration, in a White House shaken by the realization of what a difference a year made. The most likely starting place was finding a way to save the much-criticized health care overhaul he’s been trying to push through Congress.
…
Brown will become the 41st Republican in the 100-member Senate, which could allow the GOP to block the health care bill. Democrats needed Coakley to win for a 60th vote to thwart Republican filibusters.

Brown became the first Republican elected to the U.S. Senate from supposedly true-blue Democratic Massachusetts since 1972.

Democrats are upset, and the liberal reaction is what one expects.

Clearly the Brown victory shakes up the balance of power in Washington since

The Brown victory forces the White House and congressional leaders to decide how—or whether—to salvage their long-sought health-care overhaul. Rushing the bill after losing Massachusetts carries political risks. So does letting it collapse.

Anticipating rough sledding for the bill, the S&P health-care sector stock index surged by more than 2% Tuesday, leading all other industry sectors, with managed-care stocks posting strong gains.

But another important factor is Brown’s stance on national security: Marc Thiessen, in an email this morning notes,

Most of the focus on the Massachusetts Senate race has been on health care.

But according to Senator-elect Brown’s chief strategist, terrorist interrogation was the issue that put his candidate over the top.

“People talk about the potency of the health-care issue,” Brown’s top strategist, Eric Fehrnstrom, told National Review’s Robert Costa, “but from our own internal polling, the more potent issue here in Massachusetts was terrorism and the treatment of enemy combatants.”

The Republicans should celebrate Brown’s victory, yes. It shows that

Any candidate that condescends, takes for granted, turns a deaf ear and ignores the will of the people will go down like Martha Coakley. Every seat will be contested if the constituents are discontented.

But the Republicans would be wise to apply that lesson to their own candidates, and listen to Rick Moran,

On the one hand, there is the danger that if the GOP were actually to cooperate with Democrats on issues of mutual concern, they wouldn’t get any credit for their efforts from the voters. On the other hand, there is the real danger that the charge of “obstructionism” by Democrats may carry a little more weight given the circumstances of Brown’s victory.

Threading the needle on expectations is going to be an interesting problem for the Republican leadership, one made more complex by the activism of the tea party movement. Paralysis may be the only viable option when so many are so angry at so much of the inside-the-beltway elite. “Responsible” governance might require that the GOP work with the Democrats to at least bring the economy out of its horrible doldrums. But anything proposed beyond tax cuts would probably be met by fierce resistance from those who see any government spending to stimulate the economy as worse than useless and an actual betrayal of conservative principles.

Such might be the case, but the question of whether the bulk of the American people will stand still for gridlock with the economy in the shape it is in today needs to be answered. The Republicans may want to think long and hard about that in the run-up to the 2010 midterms, when voters may decide that those who obstructed measures that might have lifted the economy out of its malaise without offering any realistic alternative of their own should not be rewarded with the keys to power.

The Republicans have their work cut out for them.

And yes, thank you and congratulations, Scott Brown.

538 Model Posits Brown as 3:1 Favorite: The forecasting model that predicted all 35 Senate races in 2008 predicts Brown will win, and not only that,

Coakley’s odds are substantially worse than they appeared to be 24 hours ago, when there were fewer credible polls to evaluate and there appeared to be some chance that her numbers were bottoming out and perhaps reversing. However, the ARG and Research 2000 polls both show clear and recent trends against her. Indeed the model, which was optimized for regular rather than special elections, may be too slow to incorporate new information and may understate the magnitude of the trend toward Brown.

Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion will be liveblogging starting at 8:30AM today.

Will this mean the end of healthcare reform?

The bigger hurdle for Democrats, however, will be the anxiety and political upheaval caused by the election. If Brown wins, it will be in large part because of high turnout from independents who oppose the health care reform bill. That’s going to make going forward with reform, already a big gamble, even riskier.

Or will the Dems resort to a big gambit, and rush the bill through before Brown is seated, if he wins?

We live in interesting times, alright.

In a lighter mode, Obama: Coakley Victorious if Brown Gets Less Than 60%

Update
In Louisiana, the race is seen as important for the nation,

Kermit Hoffpauir, also of Baton Rouge, said he decided to make calls to help clients in his chemical process equipment business.

“The party in power’s an economy killer,” he said.

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Please note there will be no podcast this morning due to a change in a business appointment.

After Obama made a fuss about Scott Brown’s truck, Leslie’s omnibus is trucking in support of Scott Brown.

I can’t vote in Massachussets, and don’t own a pickup truck, but if I did I’d love one like this Ford pickup,

The Whited Sepulchre is also trucking right along.

Here’s the Scott Brown ad,

Brown, by the way, drives a GM truck. I guess Obama forgot the government now owns GM?

In today’s podcast at 11AM Eastern,
Sebastian Piñera wins Chile’s presidency.

Related reading:
Market Watch: Billionare investor Piñera wins Chile presidency
Newsreal:
The Dominoes Begin to Fall: Chile’s Leftists Lose Presidency After 52 Years in Power
The Santiago Times: Piñera Defeats Frei In Chile Presidential Election
Op-ed at the Santiago Times, Memory Versus Hope, Frei Versus Piñera

(This election, like so many, is between the party of memory and the party of hope, past versus future. The Concertación’s only hope is that the majority of Chileans still take the left’s suffering during the Pinochet dictatorship so much to heart that they won’t vote for the presidential candidate they judge to be more closely allied to the dictatorship.

(Frei—and much more important—Frei’s father, the former Chilean President Eduard Frei Montalva (in office 1964-70) called for Marxist President Salvador Allende (1970-73) to be removed from office, by military coup if necessary. But they later were advocates of Chile’s return to democracy, and thus Pinochet opponents.

(Piñera, too, was a Pinochet opponent. He led the alliance of businessmen who loudly announced they would vote NO to Pinochet’s continuing in office in the crucial 1988 plebiscite. But his center-right political party, Renovación Nacional (RN), is allied with the farther-right UDI party, which is the home of most Pinochetistas.

Chile Stocks Surge In Early Trading On Pinera Pres Election
On the left, Nikolas Kozloff: Chile’s Presidential Election and Future of South American Left
WSJ: Chile’s Frei Concedes Defeat to Piñera
Juan Forero at the WaPo: Conservative billionaire businessman Piñera is elected president of Chile
NYT: Right-Wing Businessman Wins Chile’s Presidency

Prior post: Chile: Runoff election today

Report from Al-Jazeera from Lucia Newman, who used to love Castro when she worked for CNN in Cuba, painting Sebastian Piñera as “right wing” and implying he’d be sympathetic to the juntas of old days,

Juan Forero, reporting for the NYT, is more balanced, Chile race reflects Latin America’s growing preference for free-market centrists

Whether a billionaire businessman or a former president wins Chile’s presidential election Sunday, the outcome will reflect a broader trend in Latin America — the rise of the pragmatic centrist.

After years of victories by leftist candidates, market-friendly moderates are gaining ground in the region.

Some are emerging from the right, such as Sebastian Piñera, 60, an airline magnate who has held a razor-thin lead in the polls ahead of Chile’s runoff vote.

Political analysts say that Piñera and the ruling coalition candidate, Eduardo Frei, 67, who was president from 1994 to 2000, differ in style but not markedly in the substance of their proposals. Irrespective of whom voters choose, Chile is unlikely to veer from the centrist, free-market path that has brought the nation prosperity since the end of Gen. Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship in 1990.

Political analysts say the right is not making a comeback in Latin America, where a mix of leftist rabble-rousers and European-style socialists have taken power since a bombastic former army colonel, Hugo Chávez, won office in Venezuela in 1998 by pledging to overturn the old political order.

Instead, voters are showing a preference for moderates rather than firebrand nationalists who preach class warfare and state intervention in the economy, according to political analysts and recent polls.

“Voters are more calculating and rational than we give them credit for,” said Christopher Sabatini, senior policy director at the Council of the Americas in New York. “People are making the choice to support market economies and rational leaders.”

That was the case in Panama,

In Panama, Ricardo Martinelli, a supermarket-chain owner with close ties to the United States, won the presidency in May. In Brazil, the popular governor of Sao Paulo state, José Serra, enjoys a solid lead in the polls over his more left-leaning rival ahead of October’s presidential election. Polls show the winner in Costa Rica’s election next month will probably be the ruling party’s Laura Chinchilla, who is expected to closely hew to the current government’s market-friendly policies.

Even the Communists are calling themselves moderate,

But two prominent leftists who won office last year — former rebel José “Pepe” Mujica in Uruguay and Mauricio Funes, head of a party that was born out of the guerrilla movement in El Salvador — have highlighted middle-of-the-road policies.

They say they are inspired by the region’s most admired moderate, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. A former union activist, Lula is known for his innovative anti-poverty programs and a cautious oversight of the economy that has won Wall Street approval.

“The Latin American voter wants refrigerators and washing machines — they want prosperity,” said Marta Lagos, director of Chile’s Latinobarometro polling company, which surveys political attitudes in 18 Latin American countries. “They have abandoned the ideological flag.”

Hugo Chávez’s support in the region is at an all-time low of 27% approval rating, while 59 percent of Latin Americans surveyed last month said a market economy is best for their country.

Whatever the outcome of the election in Chile, the social policies will continue along with the judicious monetary policy.

This, along with Latin Americans’ new support of market economies, is great news for the region.

I’ll post more on the election once the results are in.

Elevating the political discourse even further,

Coakley dismisses Schilling: ‘Another Yankee fan’

In the intensifying Democratic precriminations game over who to blame if Coakley loses, here’s one for the blame Coakley camp: On another talk radio show, “Nightside With Dan Rea,” Coakley jabs Rudy Giuliani as a Yankee fan, then goes on to describe Brown supporter Curt Schilling, the great former Red Sox pitcher, as a Yankee fan as well.

Not lagging behind, The Nose on Your Face has come up with a follow-up video, New Coakley Ad: Scott Brown Is A Yankee Fan,

Jules Crittenden finds the election impossible to call.

Obama to Campaign for Coakley in Massachusetts

President Barack Obama will travel to Massachusetts to campaign for embattled Democratic Senate candidate Martha Coakley before Tuesday’s special election, the White House confirmed today.

“I think the president believes he will be helpful and is happy to accept the invitation,” spokesman Robert Gibbs told reporters.

Former President Bill Clinton is campaigning for Coakley today in Massachusetts. The race has become intensely competitive as GOP state Sen. Scott Brown has surged in the polls.

The trip represents an unprecedented role for Obama in a special election.

In other signs of panic, World Trade Center Used in DSCC Scott Brown Attack Ad, arguably Worst Stock Photo Choice Ever

In the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee ad linked below, the stock photo that they use behind Scott Brown when they discuss “Wall Street greed” . . . the photo is of the World Trade Center.

Here’s the ad,

Welcome to the Carnival of Latin America and the Caribbean.

While Evo Morales won yesterday’s election and apparently gained control of the of the senate, the big story of the week is the crisis at the Venezuelan banks. Read the Venezuela News and Views post and the links in the Venezuela section below.

LATIN AMERICA
The Iranian Time Bombs

ARGENTINA
Argentina’s Dirty War Orphans

‘Iran building terror network in South America’

BOLIVIA
Bolivian elections: Evo Morales’s power grows with easy victory
Bolivian President Evo Morales has easily won a second term in power, according to early exit polls that showed the former coca farmer with a strengthened mandate to pursue socialist reforms.

Iran Demands Nurses In Bolivia Wear Hijabs and El uso de velo en un hospital iraní causa polémica en el país

One Reason why most Europeans are Morons

Drug lords finding safe haven in Bolivia

Elecciones en Bolivia: el vice de Evo asegura que “la Constitución respeta la propiedad”

BRAZIL
Behold, the fake Obama, via Instapundit,

How can you tell the fake Obama from the real one? The fake one wears the American flag on his lapel.

CHILE
La semana en plataforma urbana

COLOMBIA
Uribe’s Constitutional Challenge
The heroic Colombian president is putting his gains at risk by trying for a third term.

The Colombian Miracle
How Alvaro Uribe with smart U.S. support turned the tide against drug lords and Marxist guerrillas.

Colombia and the United States
Off base: Hoist on the petard of a dissuasive defence agreement

CUBA
Not Michael Moore’s Cuba!

A Distinguished Diplomat’s View
The impossible dream, again

“Cuba provides best Medical training ON EARTH!” says Al Jazeera

A Castro son is elected world baseball VP

ECUADOR
Ecuador Seeks To Block Chevron

Ecuador plays ‘dirty’

HONDURAS
My Personal Witness of the Honduran Election

Letter to the nation from Roberto Micheletti

Honduran Democrats Overcome the Brutal Obama Imperialism

Democracy Won in Honduras, Now Obama Can Help It Advance

Honduras: The Tiny Nation Succeeds As A Functioning Democracy Despite Opposition Pressure From Communist Nations In The Region … and The Obama Administration

Honduras Tears Down a Berlin Wall

Honduras’s presidential election
Voting to move onwards and upwards: Porfirio Lobo, pictured below, has won the support of Hondurans. Now he must convince the outside world of his legitimacy

MEXICO
107 slave laborers freed in Mexico City

PANAMA
Chocolate fix?

The Panama Canal
A plan to unlock prosperity: Ten years ago this month Panama took possession of the canal that bears its name. It has high hopes for a $5.25 billion expansion of the waterway

PUERTO RICO
Nielsen Adds Puerto Rico

Airport Check-in: Atlanta gets rental car center, Puerto Rico to privatize

•Puerto Rico has applied with the Federal Aviation Administration to privatize San Juan Luis Muñoz Marin International.
The FAA’s pilot airport-privatization program allows up to five airports – with one slot for a large hub airport – to sell a long-term lease to private operators.
A local government selling the airport lease would receive a one-time windfall but give up operational control and recurring revenue.
Puerto Rico would become the third airport in the program if the FAA accepts its application after a 30-day review. Chicago Midway has applied for and was granted the large hub airport slot in the program, but its privatization efforts collapsed this year after an investor group failed to raise $2.5 billion needed for a 99-year lease.
New Orleans is the other airport accepted in the program.
Alvaro Pilar, executive director of the Puerto Rico Ports Authority, which operates the airport, told the Associated Press that money collected from private investors may go to address the island’s fiscal crisis by paying down some of its $3.2 billion deficit.
A majority of airline tenants would have to sign off on any privatization deal. American Airlines is the dominant tenant at San Juan Muñoz.

VENEZUELA
The Venezuelan banking crisis made simple (plus Chacon departure)

Venezuela Takes Greater Control of Banks

Venezuelan Minister Quits on Banker Brother’s Arrest

Senior Venezuelan minister resigns in purge of bankers

As the Venezuelan Government intervenes more banks, its strategy remains unclear and uncertain

Report: Voluntad Popular is launched in Valencia

The three-legged stool

“¡POLICÍA, NO MATES A MI HIJO!”

ENTERTAINMENT
Behind ‘Poliwood’ Part 1: Defending Castro, Chavez and Penn

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: The World Cup draw

The week’s posts and podcasts:
Bolivia’s election: 15 Minutes on Latin America
Chile now officially a developed country
Rudy does Rio
Fighting drought, Venezuela takes over more farms
Honduran Congress rejects Zelaya’s reinstatement: 15 Minutes on Latin America
The LA Times calls for carrots for Cuba
Honduras congress will NOT reinstate Zelaya
No-fat murders

At Real Clear World:
Brazil and That Coveted Security Council Seat
Honduras: Pepe Lobo Wins

Today’s podcast at 11AM Eastern,
Evo Morales Appears to Win Bolivia Vote
Second Term Expected to Bring More Ambitious Economic Changes; Ruling Party Poised to Take Over Senate

Related reading:
Bolivia’s Morales Wins Election, Congress on Vow to Help Poor

Bolivian elections: Evo Morales’s power grows with easy victory
Bolivian President Evo Morales has easily won a second term in power, according to early exit polls that showed the former coca farmer with a strengthened mandate to pursue socialist reforms.

111 out of the 128 members of the Honduran Congress present voted against reinstating deposed president Mel Zelaya. The vote came after an all-day session where the Congress reviewed several reports from the country’s institutions, including the Supreme Court, the Attorney General, and various members of the political parties, including pro-Zelaya.

Following the vote, the Congress issued an official statement, which La Gringa translated,

“This Congress has fulfilled its responsibility under the Agreement Tegucigalpa / San José in a transparent and democratic manner. We call on all of the international community and regional bodies, including the Organization of American States, to respect our sovereignty. Having elected a new president, all Hondurans have already begun the process of national unity and reconciliation. Those seeking to continue the controversy and to perpetuate the political crisis in our country are obsessed with the past and personal agendas and not the welfare of our country,” added Ramón Velásquez Nazar, Vice President of Congress and member of the Christian Democratic Party of Honduras.

You can read the original in Spanish here.

Roberto Micheletti will remain as president until Pepe Lobo’s January inauguration. Micheletti had stepped aside during the election.

We’ll see where Zelaya decides to go next, unless the Brazilians simply love having him hanging around the tin foil-lined room.

UPDATE
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